{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-PFMBG00377",
  "slug": "0-ships-transit-hormuz-on-any-date-byptpt-20260626172559966",
  "question": "Will zero ships transit the Strait of Hormuz by 2026-07-07?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "strait-of-hormuz",
    "shipping-blockade",
    "middle-east-conflict",
    "2026",
    "binary-outcome"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether zero ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any single date before each respective deadline. Each contract extends the resolution window by roughly two weeks, creating a term structure of escalating closure probability. Later-dated contracts embed more time for a complete transit halt to occur. All four markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, with no independent data publisher named as the authoritative source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-V9DLM56M59",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.09,
    "implied_probability": 0.09
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-73SW8FRCC7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PFMBG00377",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x95774ced6e956ea7aa5e6acbc37ce527ad7a788e60051ed9ea2a8ccb38dccb91",
      "question": "0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.\"\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T16:27:17Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.\"\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 859.186,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitical",
        "hormuz",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz ship"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LB12307797",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PFMBG00377",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1453ae75a9e8aeb45610b9717e4cec3a9d938f5bc300067954cced94dd661e38",
      "question": "0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 7?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.\"\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 7: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-07T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-15T18:04:13Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.\"\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.004,
      "implied_probability": 0.004,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 10875.15872,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitical",
        "hormuz",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz ship"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2GFN9DLZT3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PFMBG00377",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x88ce0bfc46c66e6cbd22c3eef83dea8a3dc393741aa756c12a99ecdd6bc50441",
      "question": "0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 14?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.\"\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 14: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-21T19:16:15Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.\"\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.023,
      "implied_probability": 0.023,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 120331.464009,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitical",
        "hormuz",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz ship"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V9DLM56M59",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PFMBG00377",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xff3eade4aeb721d37d4ba7c7a924eb949df2a0449488709eb1825233cc49e7b1",
      "question": "0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.\"\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.\"\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 12491.967192999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 271626.0407490001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitical",
        "hormuz",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz ship"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2GFN9DLZT3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-21T19:16:15Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LB12307797",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-15T18:04:13Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-73SW8FRCC7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-07T16:27:17Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-PFMBG00377",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}