{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-1SNM1620V9",
  "slug": "100-tariff-on-canada-in-effect-by-june-30",
  "question": "Will a 100% tariff on Canada be in effect by June 30?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "politics",
    "trump",
    "tariffs",
    "us-canada-trade"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether a 100% or higher U.S. tariff on Canadian goods takes effect by June 30, 2026. A single Polymarket binary contract prices the yes/no outcome. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing announcements from the U.S. Trade Representative or U.S. Customs and Border Protection. No offsetting rate-level or margin contract exists on a second platform for cross-platform comparison.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-5ZCG1TG819",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5ZCG1TG819",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1SNM1620V9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1b3f1f2bec1c92ff851c9b02c3c8bbc320e5aac7bc371ad0f615c5521a4494e7",
      "question": "100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?",
      "description": "On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOnly tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new glo",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The U.S. Office of the U.S. Trade Representative or U.S. Customs and Border Protection announces whether a 100% or higher tariff rate on Canadian imports takes effect by June 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOnly tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, \"goes into effect\" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.\n\nThe general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).\n\nA general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.\n\nThis market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "reuters.com",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from the Trump administration",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 825.3800000000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 63999.91455899994,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-6FEFC2C9CF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "canada",
        "tariff",
        "trade",
        "us tariff canada",
        "us-canada"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5ZCG1TG819",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-1SNM1620V9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}