{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-GFLVS8DGJ5",
  "slug": "2-ai-lab-end-of-august-style-control-on-20260720231255330",
  "question": "Will AI Lab end by the end of August?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "tech",
    "anthropic",
    "ai-rankings",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which AI lab holds the second-ranked position on the Text Arena Overall Leaderboard at arena.ai as of August 31, 2026. Each Polymarket contract isolates a single lab as a binary outcome; together they form an exhaustive set of mutually exclusive YES/NO positions across roughly 32 competitors. All contracts resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using the Labs Rank column snapshot at 12:00 PM ET on the resolution date. The arena.ai leaderboard ranking methodology is the authoritative source, and any mid-day ranking anomalies or site changes near the snapshot window could create resolution disputes.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-B4T5WPNJJ4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.39,
    "implied_probability": 0.39
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7TDYMVYL38",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GFLVS8DGJ5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd20447d1c6e499b09ad7aee730aadd71c64f1c27bf8bcbeca389d57dc788daee",
      "question": "Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results base",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Anthropic: The Text Arena Overall Leaderboard Labs Rank column at arena.ai on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company ranks second highest.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.031,
      "implied_probability": 0.031,
      "volume_24h_usd": 141.82840900000002,
      "volume_total_usd": 2135.439334,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-357EFFDBDC",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PYC42X7BG6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GFLVS8DGJ5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc5698c53ad8d753daab3606bc004ef33a9e59928d4281ee7b1d5d0914b13ec22",
      "question": "Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results base",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Meta: The Text Arena Overall Leaderboard Labs Rank column at arena.ai on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company ranks second highest.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 72,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-504A888968",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B4T5WPNJJ4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GFLVS8DGJ5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd492b3180fe34cafcb532d0f96e1901a6c0c277cc4cdaf579156878f006c817a",
      "question": "Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results base",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Google: The Text Arena Overall Leaderboard Labs Rank column at arena.ai on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company ranks second highest.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
        "sources": [
          {
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            "url": null,
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          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.39,
      "implied_probability": 0.39,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1805.2788429999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 10419.017902,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E41B5FB5B6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai lab august"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6ZVF4PF5G2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GFLVS8DGJ5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x33cb7e9c563325a64d5b9601a2a3caab04e92560c39cdb52ee6dbf6def1db9f4",
      "question": "Will Moonshot be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results base",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Moonshot: The Text Arena Overall Leaderboard Labs Rank column at arena.ai on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company ranks second highest.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
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          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.036,
      "implied_probability": 0.036,
      "volume_24h_usd": 141.829428,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-DDD50B1FA0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VWYFF4VX39",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GFLVS8DGJ5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x18ba4eac4e47de306da2c9da9106889507433ee33da1ce34911cfbe8cdb90f8f",
      "question": "Will OpenAI be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results base",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "OpenAI: The Text Arena Overall Leaderboard Labs Rank column at arena.ai on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company ranks second highest.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 72,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.041,
      "implied_probability": 0.041,
      "volume_24h_usd": 496.56301,
      "volume_total_usd": 2151.959023,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-5F9137D513",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0KK6DZ6KZ5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GFLVS8DGJ5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb90632ece2b82ee85a4bda1ffe2c8ffc68c6ee705ce398a1d4df9b6581f0f34d",
      "question": "Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results base",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Alibaba: The Text Arena Overall Leaderboard Labs Rank column at arena.ai on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company ranks second highest.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
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