{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KM80PHQKY8",
  "slug": "2-ai-lab-end-of-september-style-control-on-20260722222005322",
  "question": "Will the AI Lab end by the end of September?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "tech",
    "ai-lab-ranking",
    "anthropic",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which AI lab ranks second on the Arena.ai Text Arena Overall Leaderboard, with Style Control On, as of September 30, 2026. Each Polymarket contract isolates one named lab as a binary outcome. The 32 contracts are mutually exclusive; probabilities across all legs should sum to roughly 100%. Resolution uses Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the Arena.ai leaderboard snapshot at close.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-Y3MFHXB850",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.17,
    "implied_probability": 0.17
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KSC92ZDNT0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KM80PHQKY8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa8150742a0a5146bb0fb13894e40c88bcdb7f16f9ad73a16904815ea5b96126c",
      "question": "Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results b",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Anthropic: Arena.ai Text Arena Overall Leaderboard Labs ranking, filtered for Labs with Style Control On, determines the second-ranked company on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.07,
      "implied_probability": 0.07,
      "volume_24h_usd": 166.989666,
      "volume_total_usd": 405.290899,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-3925383469",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-lab",
        "anthropic",
        "ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RYD1X273Q7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KM80PHQKY8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5356a8b0fb19306f9169a74d6578088d7d7d6438c821234abcd0900aa81890ec",
      "question": "Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results b",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Meta: Arena.ai Text Arena Overall Leaderboard Labs ranking, filtered for Labs with Style Control On, determines the second-ranked company on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.14,
      "implied_probability": 0.14,
      "volume_24h_usd": 294,
      "volume_total_usd": 647.357271,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-32BE0ABABA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-lab",
        "meta",
        "ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HG1VR2R9S7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KM80PHQKY8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb18873368d9d11959db74d88441d01693325bc090907225398304733361801c7",
      "question": "Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results b",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Google: Arena.ai Text Arena Overall Leaderboard Labs ranking, filtered for Labs with Style Control On, determines the second-ranked company on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.38,
      "implied_probability": 0.38,
      "volume_24h_usd": 408,
      "volume_total_usd": 875.032628,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-842FD33BB0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-lab",
        "google",
        "ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YZJC07SFS4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KM80PHQKY8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc070d11ccca352c3ac5e135e9341790f735c4d7478611d3422689b1f3cfbb98d",
      "question": "Will Moonshot be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results b",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Moonshot: Arena.ai Text Arena Overall Leaderboard Labs ranking, filtered for Labs with Style Control On, determines the second-ranked company on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 344.17,
      "volume_total_usd": 473.001533,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A25227D5E4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-lab",
        "moonshot",
        "ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y3MFHXB850",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KM80PHQKY8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xadf4878215a5c966025a627717c025cbfb405f8ef7632cc4f12648f2db9da704",
      "question": "Will OpenAI be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results b",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "OpenAI: Arena.ai Text Arena Overall Leaderboard Labs ranking, filtered for Labs with Style Control On, determines the second-ranked company on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.17,
      "implied_probability": 0.17,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2348.174541,
      "volume_total_usd": 5252.966198,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-1F5E3B54CE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-lab",
        "openai",
        "ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZR9RND84X7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KM80PHQKY8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x79b038f0b10a53c2668eca7315b8a14af20f3d49aa3cc6fd8ff623bbe67ec24f",
      "question": "Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results b",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Alibaba: Arena.ai Text Arena Overall Leaderboard Labs ranking, filtered for Labs with Style Control On, determines the second-ranked company on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
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      "question": "Will Thinky be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?",
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      "question": "Will Meituan be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
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      "question": "Will Mistral be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F857CD9263",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KM80PHQKY8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfc0e994695a834e272923a4772c000553542862200c36a2916e5209944770852",
      "question": "Will Amazon be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TTMNCTQDY8",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
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