{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-18QB26L4N1",
  "slug": "2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-224",
  "question": "Will the 2026 House of Representatives popular vote margin of victory exceed 5 percentage points?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "congress",
    "elections",
    "2026-midterms",
    "us-house",
    "electoral-margin"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the popular vote margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections. Polymarket structures the event as discrete margin-of-victory tiers, spanning Democratic wins of 0-2% through 16%+ and Republican wins of 0-2% through 6%+. Each tier is a separate binary contract resolved via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against House.gov's official election statistics. Resolution is set for November 3, 2026, before most states complete canvassing, creating meaningful timing risk around final certified tallies.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-JD3ZT1DY19",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.03,
    "implied_probability": 0.03
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YD9206ZP76",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-18QB26L4N1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc8a2dee57a4c1431e7ea74c00e820e8c3ea58fcbe5d83ebf51dd1b11a08940c2",
      "question": "Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by 16% or more?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats 16%+: House.gov's official election statistics will determine the absolute percentage-point margin between the two major parties' combined House candidate vote totals by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.\n\nIf the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "history.house.gov",
            "url": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Clerk of the House",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "US Clerk of the House",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2431.677112000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 16,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026-midterms",
        "democratic party house",
        "democrats",
        "house",
        "popular-vote"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SLLCZ5XCS9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-18QB26L4N1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x97a13262d6801d392fbe2a1c31ea1c1210c15ebd7f078fc1473eb6f4e5b89759",
      "question": "Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 14% and 16%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats 14-16%: House.gov's official election statistics will determine the absolute percentage-point margin between the two major parties' combined House candidate vote totals by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.\n\nIf the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "history.house.gov",
            "url": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Clerk of the House",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "US Clerk of the House",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.013,
      "implied_probability": 0.013,
      "volume_24h_usd": 117,
      "volume_total_usd": 2103.1445140000005,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026-midterms",
        "democratic party house",
        "democrats",
        "house",
        "popular-vote"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-23N3WTC9M9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-18QB26L4N1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcdfad8e20c0fdb934ed557b4f2085b3f16481c073a3e60c5c6e483655068b7a9",
      "question": "Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 12% and 14%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats 12-14%: House.gov's official election statistics will determine the absolute percentage-point margin between the two major parties' combined House candidate vote totals by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.\n\nIf the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "history.house.gov",
            "url": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Clerk of the House",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "US Clerk of the House",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.062,
      "implied_probability": 0.062,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3898.8315430000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026-midterms",
        "democratic party house",
        "democrats",
        "house",
        "popular-vote"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BJ8RGWYPK5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-18QB26L4N1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf9e868548efc70080ecd0943a05a45fc1d366467fb45aee13fbcb56d0040ac69",
      "question": "Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats 10-12%: House.gov's official election statistics will determine the absolute percentage-point margin between the two major parties' combined House candidate vote totals by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.\n\nIf the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "history.house.gov",
            "url": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Clerk of the House",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "US Clerk of the House",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.2,
      "implied_probability": 0.2,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 6631.228336000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026-midterms",
        "democratic party house",
        "democrats",
        "house",
        "popular-vote"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2YTJK2NJG1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-18QB26L4N1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5db0b6a0e75f58d894ee29595d318249ae73325ca3f38b8306bd04f82c7d3daf",
      "question": "Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats 8-10%: House.gov's official election statistics will determine the absolute percentage-point margin between the two major parties' combined House candidate vote totals by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.\n\nIf the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "history.house.gov",
            "url": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Clerk of the House",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "US Clerk of the House",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.26,
      "implied_probability": 0.26,
      "volume_24h_usd": 50,
      "volume_total_usd": 13447.547231999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026-midterms",
        "democratic party house",
        "democrats",
        "house",
        "popular-vote"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TN2PQLM816",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-18QB26L4N1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0938f71f2b11cf2100995a150c0907aa72997745ab0257db7c2ac79dee73c525",
      "question": "Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 6% and 8%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats 6-8%: House.gov's official election statistics will determine the absolute percentage-point margin between the two major parties' combined House candidate vote totals by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.\n\nIf the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "history.house.gov",
            "url": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Clerk of the House",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "US Clerk of the House",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.18,
      "implied_probability": 0.18,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 13620.014957999998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026-midterms",
        "democratic party house",
        "democrats",
        "house",
        "popular-vote"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KGC8X0VJ99",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-18QB26L4N1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7b248c29c72dd5714f1006e011e20a227e72889b30ef5e5cbda6f617bb115501",
      "question": "Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats 4-6%: House.gov's official election statistics will determine the absolute percentage-point margin between the two major parties' combined House candidate vote totals by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.\n\nIf the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "history.house.gov",
            "url": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Clerk of the House",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "US Clerk of the House",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5037.421620000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026-midterms",
        "democratic party house",
        "democrats",
        "house",
        "popular-vote"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-98B7X02GS2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-18QB26L4N1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xae69dae7b238b345a2182b9f461c855050498e2348360f70249ad9bbd56af5ae",
      "question": "Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats 2-4%: House.gov's official election statistics will determine the absolute percentage-point margin between the two major parties' combined House candidate vote totals by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.\n\nIf the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "history.house.gov",
            "url": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Clerk of the House",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "US Clerk of the House",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.062,
      "implied_probability": 0.062,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 13366.983350999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026-midterms",
        "democratic party house",
        "democrats",
        "house",
        "popular-vote"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MRG2Y2C6H1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-18QB26L4N1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x24a6606f98c1baa4123efe2b45a5441f9d1eeda0adf3e58e4ad73e6172e72c1e",
      "question": "Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats 0-2%: House.gov's official election statistics will determine the absolute percentage-point margin between the two major parties' combined House candidate vote totals by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.\n\nIf the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "history.house.gov",
            "url": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Clerk of the House",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "US Clerk of the House",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.024,
      "implied_probability": 0.024,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 13364.404539000005,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026-midterms",
        "democratic party house",
        "democrats",
        "house",
        "popular-vote"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZKT1V9S136",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-18QB26L4N1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6472b249823c3f3a57f5954e7293068e3b1b0dd08acb8975e2506189ffda0767",
      "question": "Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans 0-2%: House.gov's official election statistics will determine the absolute percentage-point margin between the two major parties' combined House candidate vote totals by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.\n\nIf the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "history.house.gov",
            "url": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Clerk of the House",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "US Clerk of the House",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.031,
      "implied_probability": 0.031,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4414.662778999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026-midterms",
        "house",
        "popular-vote",
        "republican party house",
        "republicans"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JD3ZT1DY19",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-18QB26L4N1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9163ed507939950121ef6b939e89c1f72ee0f7dd0909940b5aed9e3e7854f6d4",
      "question": "Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans 2-4%: House.gov's official election statistics will determine the absolute percentage-point margin between the two major parties' combined House candidate vote totals by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.\n\nIf the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "history.house.gov",
            "url": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Clerk of the House",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "US Clerk of the House",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 28977.773862999988,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026-midterms",
        "house",
        "popular-vote",
        "republican party house",
        "republicans"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CHMCMF5LR4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-18QB26L4N1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x70198ab319f446030b387fb8d724cf0a568946a3f6781cadf0de153298354bee",
      "question": "Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans 4-6%: House.gov's official election statistics will determine the absolute percentage-point margin between the two major parties' combined House candidate vote totals by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.\n\nIf the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "history.house.gov",
            "url": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Clerk of the House",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "US Clerk of the House",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.012,
      "implied_probability": 0.012,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2122.674662,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026-midterms",
        "house",
        "popular-vote",
        "republican party house",
        "republicans"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-68MTD1DXV7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-18QB26L4N1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd710b417877c52606a73e3a653680e67a64e3a658445e1ca17bff691df71f3ed",
      "question": "Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by 6% or more?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans 6%+: House.gov's official election statistics will determine the absolute percentage-point margin between the two major parties' combined House candidate vote totals by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.\n\nIf the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "history.house.gov",
            "url": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Clerk of the House",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "US Clerk of the House",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3391.8465650000003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026-midterms",
        "house",
        "popular-vote",
        "republican party house",
        "republicans"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-59R7Q6H6H8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-18QB26L4N1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xca99b87570b2895b6ff920c3a541425269175a9b005edccdd98d310e1649a087",
      "question": "Will any other outcome occur in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Other: House.gov's official election statistics will determine the absolute percentage-point margin between the two major parties' combined House candidate vote totals by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.\n\nIf the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "history.house.gov",
            "url": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Clerk of the House",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "US Clerk of the House",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": null,
      "implied_probability": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026-midterms",
        "house",
        "house midterm outcome",
        "other",
        "popular-vote"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-59R7Q6H6H8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-18QB26L4N1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}