{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-89RK87C193",
  "slug": "2026-montgomery-county-judge-election-winner-20260626004629130",
  "question": "Who will win the 2026 Montgomery County Judge election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "2026",
    "montgomery-county",
    "judicial-races",
    "county-judges"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the outcome of the 2026 Montgomery County, Texas judge election. Polymarket lists named candidates alongside anonymized placeholders, each resolved independently as binary outcome contracts. All markets share the same structure: Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves each contract against Montgomery County, TX official election results. The November 3, 2026 close date aligns with general election night reporting.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-8MNFN624X0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.66,
    "implied_probability": 0.66
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8MNFN624X0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-89RK87C193",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4c6f1eabfe9da54694b3c3a9adce026bd9ff7b8520346ba5ee281a029e8b80be",
      "question": "Will Mark Keough win the 2026 Montgomery County Judge election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Montgomery County Judge election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the County Judge of Montgomery County, TX.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next County Judge of Montgomery County as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder County Judges appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any amb",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Mark Keough: Montgomery County, TX official election results or credible reporting consensus will determine which named candidate wins the County Judge election on November 3, 2026, with resolution by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Montgomery County Judge election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the County Judge of Montgomery County, TX.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next County Judge of Montgomery County as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder County Judges appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the State of Texas and Montgomery County.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from the State of Texas and Montgomery County",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.66,
      "implied_probability": 0.66,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PW7X7SMZ14",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-89RK87C193",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x64b2d1bfa64451a36820f2dd1c48d6cc08d1573784723bc63487fda5a503629d",
      "question": "Will James Graf win the 2026 Montgomery County Judge election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Montgomery County Judge election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the County Judge of Montgomery County, TX.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next County Judge of Montgomery County as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder County Judges appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any amb",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "James Graf: Montgomery County, TX official election results or credible reporting consensus will determine which named candidate wins the County Judge election on November 3, 2026, with resolution by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Montgomery County Judge election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the County Judge of Montgomery County, TX.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next County Judge of Montgomery County as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder County Judges appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the State of Texas and Montgomery County.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-89RK87C193",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xef551eee011dcef66a40c9015795df15f0cd1ad2eec9ce437fc85ebf02940a16",
      "question": "Will Person A win the 2026 Montgomery County Judge election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Montgomery County Judge election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the County Judge of Montgomery County, TX.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next County Judge of Montgomery County as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder County Judges appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any amb",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person A: Montgomery County, TX official election results or credible reporting consensus will determine which named candidate wins the County Judge election on November 3, 2026, with resolution by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Montgomery County Judge election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the County Judge of Montgomery County, TX.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next County Judge of Montgomery County as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder County Judges appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the State of Texas and Montgomery County.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SM3D7ZT606",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-89RK87C193",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa01aaca47652abd4c98173535b01972db5677ba5f0112d965ced8b8f62f5a99c",
      "question": "Will Person B win the 2026 Montgomery County Judge election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Montgomery County Judge election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the County Judge of Montgomery County, TX.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next County Judge of Montgomery County as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder County Judges appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any amb",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person B: Montgomery County, TX official election results or credible reporting consensus will determine which named candidate wins the County Judge election on November 3, 2026, with resolution by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Montgomery County Judge election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the County Judge of Montgomery County, TX.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next County Judge of Montgomery County as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder County Judges appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the State of Texas and Montgomery County.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
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            "name": "official information from the State of Texas and Montgomery County",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0,
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      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D8XRVNXG76",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-89RK87C193",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x157ae1142b216968807fae3b94c649a4a4145825f44d0cb5e9bfd77f88dce6f7",
      "question": "Will Person C win the 2026 Montgomery County Judge election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Montgomery County Judge election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the County Judge of Montgomery County, TX.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next County Judge of Montgomery County as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder County Judges appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any amb",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person C: Montgomery County, TX official election results or credible reporting consensus will determine which named candidate wins the County Judge election on November 3, 2026, with resolution by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Montgomery County Judge election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the County Judge of Montgomery County, TX.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next County Judge of Montgomery County as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder County Judges appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the State of Texas and Montgomery County.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from the State of Texas and Montgomery County",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5D12WVP2G0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-89RK87C193",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd2ed92f2413558fc624b8c1293db44dfb3f5f9c95def9a6569a920a0c80c4984",
      "question": "Will Person D win the 2026 Montgomery County Judge election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Montgomery County Judge election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the County Judge of Montgomery County, TX.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next County Judge of Montgomery County as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder County Judges appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any amb",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person D: Montgomery County, TX official election results or credible reporting consensus will determine which named candidate wins the County Judge election on November 3, 2026, with resolution by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Montgomery County Judge election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the County Judge of Montgomery County, TX.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next County Judge of Montgomery County as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder County Judges appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the State of Texas and Montgomery County.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "official information from the State of Texas and Montgomery County",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S1DWKXJS09",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-89RK87C193",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xebf779d8f0b3c36584054cb3210ec39ac5db17447aff4546a593672755f545f7",
      "question": "Will Person E win the 2026 Montgomery County Judge election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Montgomery County Judge election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the County Judge of Montgomery County, TX.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next County Judge of Montgomery County as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder County Judges appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any amb",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person E: Montgomery County, TX official election results or credible reporting consensus will determine which named candidate wins the County Judge election on November 3, 2026, with resolution by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Montgomery County Judge election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the County Judge of Montgomery County, TX.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next County Judge of Montgomery County as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder County Judges appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the State of Texas and Montgomery County.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5QF2S57P65",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-89RK87C193",
      "platform": "polymarket",
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      "question": "Will Person F win the 2026 Montgomery County Judge election?",
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      "close_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
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