{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-PWVBZ3JY79",
  "slug": "2026-world-gdp-growth",
  "question": "Will global GDP growth in 2026 be positive?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "gdp-growth",
    "global-macroeconomics",
    "2027-resolution",
    "real-world-measurement"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track 2026 world GDP growth as reported by the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook Update. Nine discrete Polymarket contracts span contiguous rate tiers from 2.9% or below to 3.7% or above. Each tier is a binary contract; together they form a probability distribution across the full outcome range. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using the IMF's January 2027 publication.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-JZNZPBKJG4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.178,
    "implied_probability": 0.178,
    "as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JZNZPBKJG4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PWVBZ3JY79",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa3833fb4962f96f7232768080bdd927746ac897d4bfa5f9a0ffbac9c05be7be5",
      "question": "Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026?",
      "description": "This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027. \n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from count",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "≤2.9%: International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook Update released January 2027 resolves based on the \"World Output\" real GDP annual percent change estimate for 2026 in the \"World Economic Outlook Growth Projections\" table.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-15T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-15T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027. \n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo\n\nIf no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.\n\nIf multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "imf.org",
            "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "International Monetary Fund",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "World Economic Outlook Update",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "World Economic Outlook",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "International Monetary Fund",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.178,
      "implied_probability": 0.178,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.5,
      "volume_total_usd": 6220.80993,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 2.9,
      "question_id": "CMX-B40B08BC92",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gdp",
        "global",
        "growth",
        "macro",
        "world gdp growth"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YY2JK9FJV7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PWVBZ3JY79",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1bc6c0e52f07a573a64c0a095af33930e5ac0f065a056b1e586f5eb7887f3531",
      "question": "Will world GDP growth be 3.0% in 2026?",
      "description": "This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027. \n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from count",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "3.0%: International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook Update released January 2027 resolves based on the \"World Output\" real GDP annual percent change estimate for 2026 in the \"World Economic Outlook Growth Projections\" table.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-15T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-15T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027. \n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo\n\nIf no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.\n\nIf multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "imf.org",
            "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "International Monetary Fund",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "World Economic Outlook Update",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "World Economic Outlook",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "International Monetary Fund",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.273,
      "implied_probability": 0.273,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-05T23:01:09.328Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5330.067047999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-C660D40CCD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gdp",
        "global",
        "growth",
        "macro",
        "world gdp growth"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8KYM0P2196",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PWVBZ3JY79",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2eb19e745505204f889ddd1293d213e4a28a579110b2cfd8e1e809b050b47545",
      "question": "Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026?",
      "description": "This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027. \n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from count",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "3.1%: International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook Update released January 2027 resolves based on the \"World Output\" real GDP annual percent change estimate for 2026 in the \"World Economic Outlook Growth Projections\" table.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-15T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-15T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027. \n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo\n\nIf no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.\n\nIf multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "imf.org",
            "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "International Monetary Fund",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "World Economic Outlook Update",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "World Economic Outlook",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "International Monetary Fund",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.292,
      "implied_probability": 0.292,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T11:00:38.944Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4297.300711999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 3.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-2D22AD8BF3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gdp",
        "global",
        "growth",
        "macro",
        "world gdp growth"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PL3LRCKBF4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PWVBZ3JY79",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6219e01740da1e4b0b67c32692f2f33b47b283a3b720aeb6d8dbb48a33bfb7ea",
      "question": "Will world GDP growth be 3.2% in 2026?",
      "description": "This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027. \n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from count",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "3.2%: International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook Update released January 2027 resolves based on the \"World Output\" real GDP annual percent change estimate for 2026 in the \"World Economic Outlook Growth Projections\" table.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-15T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-15T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027. \n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo\n\nIf no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.\n\nIf multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "imf.org",
            "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "International Monetary Fund",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "World Economic Outlook Update",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "World Economic Outlook",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "International Monetary Fund",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.128,
      "implied_probability": 0.128,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T00:01:11.919Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2309.5980870000003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 3.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-B4C85C27B2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gdp",
        "global",
        "growth",
        "macro",
        "world gdp growth"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y8RDR0DJ25",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PWVBZ3JY79",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb8e453f1147b9ed4b0303476ca53d065137dee9ab0286e9b281e1c9eb1e3b627",
      "question": "Will world GDP growth be 3.3% in 2026?",
      "description": "This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027. \n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from count",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "3.3%: International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook Update released January 2027 resolves based on the \"World Output\" real GDP annual percent change estimate for 2026 in the \"World Economic Outlook Growth Projections\" table.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-15T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-15T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027. \n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo\n\nIf no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.\n\nIf multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "imf.org",
            "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "International Monetary Fund",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "World Economic Outlook Update",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "World Economic Outlook",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "International Monetary Fund",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.011,
      "implied_probability": 0.011,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 5,
      "volume_total_usd": 4025.288114,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 3.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-8F4E9EA03C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gdp",
        "global",
        "growth",
        "macro",
        "world gdp growth"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DWLCW8LXM8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PWVBZ3JY79",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe910586ba1cd1e15f7c65d55080d97044721858480db1869763437a138389b08",
      "question": "Will world GDP growth be 3.4% in 2026?",
      "description": "This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027. \n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from count",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "3.4%: International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook Update released January 2027 resolves based on the \"World Output\" real GDP annual percent change estimate for 2026 in the \"World Economic Outlook Growth Projections\" table.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-15T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-15T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027. \n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo\n\nIf no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.\n\nIf multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source": null,
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        "source_citation": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo",
        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "volume_total_usd": 4544.108980999999,
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      "question": "Will world GDP growth be 3.5% in 2026?",
      "description": "This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027. \n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from count",
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      "close_at": "2027-01-15T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-15T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027. \n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo\n\nIf no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.\n\nIf multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "price_as_of": "2026-08-06T10:00:41.025Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3581.4307439999993,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
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      "question_id": "CMX-57D72263F4",
      "also_on": null,
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        "macro",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PWVBZ3JY79",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x082a94135166ca7d0b4946669e9b4f79302438e5c712e8d6e75e67d5a76f85e1",
      "question": "Will world GDP growth be 3.6% in 2026?",
      "description": "This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027. \n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from count",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "3.6%: International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook Update released January 2027 resolves based on the \"World Output\" real GDP annual percent change estimate for 2026 in the \"World Economic Outlook Growth Projections\" table.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-15T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-15T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027. \n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo\n\nIf no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.\n\nIf multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_total_usd": 904.479265,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
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      "question_id": "CMX-F19A012626",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "global",
        "growth",
        "macro",
        "world gdp growth"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PWVBZ3JY79",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0681f7b9342125d3cf45f3afcfcff5c37c78563038444f511bd29a1d138b9a72",
      "question": "Will world GDP growth be 3.7%+ in 2026?",
      "description": "This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027. \n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from count",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "3.7%+: International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook Update released January 2027 resolves based on the \"World Output\" real GDP annual percent change estimate for 2026 in the \"World Economic Outlook Growth Projections\" table.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-15T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-15T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027. \n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo\n\nIf no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.\n\nIf multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo",
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          {
            "name": "International Monetary Fund",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
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      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.7,
      "question_id": "CMX-B4BCC82FEB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "global",
        "growth",
        "macro",
        "world gdp growth"
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}