{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-W8HBT7H5Z2",
  "slug": "2k-container-ship-transits-of-suez-canal-in-h1-2026",
  "question": "Will there be 2,000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal in the first half of 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "suez-canal",
    "maritime-trade",
    "shipping-volume",
    "middle-east",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether container ship transits through the Suez Canal reach 2,000 or more in the first half of 2026. The Suez Canal Authority publishes the authoritative transit statistics used for resolution. Resolution occurs via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against official Navigation Statistics data. The market closes and resolves on June 30, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-SYZ6V8LWN8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.001,
    "implied_probability": 0.001
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SYZ6V8LWN8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W8HBT7H5Z2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x90c9f679e2f272caf121b7f5ec4994525cbe5887531423110783308053a1fbd5",
      "question": "2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?",
      "description": "Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.\n\nThis ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Suez Canal Authority publishes container ship transit statistics for the first half of 2026 on its Navigation Statistics webpage.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "suezcanal.gov.eg",
            "url": "https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Suez Canal Authority (SCA)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Clarkson Research",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Lloyd's List",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Suez Canal Authority (SCA)",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 92,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3644.62,
      "volume_total_usd": 158495.648591,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "container ships",
        "maritime",
        "shipping",
        "suez canal",
        "suez canal container"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-W8HBT7H5Z2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}