{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-0Z71X2XJZ2",
  "slug": "abbas-araghchi-out-as-minister-of-foreign-affairs-of-iran-byptptpt-20260709234123315",
  "question": "Will Abbas Araghchi be out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by the settlement date?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "iran-government",
    "foreign-affairs",
    "cabinet-changes",
    "middle-east-politics",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Abbas Araghchi exits the role of Iran's Minister of Foreign Affairs by three sequential deadlines in 2026. The July 31, September 30, and December 31 contracts form a term-structure ladder on the same binary outcome. A near-term resolution to YES on the July contract would cascade logically through the later dates. All three resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using publicly available reporting on Araghchi's ministerial status.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-34CG9J5G17",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.039,
    "implied_probability": 0.039
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-34CG9J5G17",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0Z71X2XJZ2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x922b6bc7783c7284e748bfd2bd171091d12eeecd5d1f0694879ca0af05d79f9e",
      "question": "Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Abbas Araghchi ceases to be Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Abbas Araghchi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified pos",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Abbas Araghchi ceases to be Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Abbas Araghchi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Abbas Araghchi and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Abbas Araghchi and the government of Iran",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.039,
      "implied_probability": 0.039,
      "volume_24h_usd": 333.862751,
      "volume_total_usd": 28742.87018900001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "abbas araghchi iranian",
        "araghchi",
        "foreign-affairs",
        "government",
        "iran"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L0YLXXP1G7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0Z71X2XJZ2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd0c2f5580e673906fffebbf12dddc904f6bbb0374fe5cb5e9695ab1659e0da66",
      "question": "Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Abbas Araghchi ceases to be Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Abbas Araghchi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified pos",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Abbas Araghchi ceases to be Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Abbas Araghchi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Abbas Araghchi and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Abbas Araghchi and the government of Iran",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1780.909089,
      "volume_total_usd": 10498.54815,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "abbas araghchi iranian",
        "araghchi",
        "foreign-affairs",
        "government",
        "iran"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LGYZHBMBQ7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0Z71X2XJZ2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3a191ec82c99051119bfa197f1334b262cddc8b742e47b766a6d3e16fee1e7e9",
      "question": "Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Abbas Araghchi ceases to be Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Abbas Araghchi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified pos",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Abbas Araghchi ceases to be Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Abbas Araghchi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Abbas Araghchi and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Abbas Araghchi and the government of Iran",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 7766.958708,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "abbas araghchi iranian",
        "araghchi",
        "foreign-affairs",
        "government",
        "iran"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-0Z71X2XJZ2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}