{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-456ZVR04P9",
  "slug": "adam-back-confirmed-to-be-satoshi-by-december-31",
  "question": "Will Adam Back be confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "satoshi-identity",
    "bitcoin-founder",
    "crypto",
    "confirmation-required",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether definitive public evidence confirms Adam Back as Bitcoin's pseudonymous creator by December 31, 2026. Polymarket prices a binary outcome on identity confirmation. Resolution depends on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle interpreting what constitutes \"definitive\" proof, a subjective threshold with no official arbiter. No corroborating platform prices this event at an alternate structure.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-1M9G8XP2W9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.038,
    "implied_probability": 0.038
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1M9G8XP2W9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-456ZVR04P9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xecb137754a477f819979831ed887b0fcbc20325682bb5be399146c0d7f9e5f88",
      "question": "Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if definitive evidence confirming that Adam Back is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nQualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence.\n\nIf Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Adam Back was a member of that group will qualify.\n\nUnverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves based on whether definitive public evidence confirms Adam Back as Satoshi Nakamoto by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if definitive evidence confirming that Adam Back is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nQualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence.\n\nIf Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Adam Back was a member of that group will qualify.\n\nUnverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.038,
      "implied_probability": 0.038,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 21573.348864999974,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F8FF486D4F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "adam back",
        "adam back satoshi",
        "bitcoin",
        "identity",
        "satoshi"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-456ZVR04P9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}