{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-F551BM8LB9",
  "slug": "ahmed-al-sharaa-out-as-leader-of-syria-before-2027",
  "question": "Will Ahmed al-Sharaa no longer be the leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "geopolitics",
    "syria-leadership",
    "middle-east",
    "regime-change",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether Ahmed al-Sharaa exits the Syrian presidency before December 31, 2026. Only one market exists, structured as a binary outcome on Polymarket. Resolution depends on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle determining whether al-Sharaa has ceased to hold the office. No cross-platform comparison is available for this event.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-06HLCY9659",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.08,
    "implied_probability": 0.08
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-06HLCY9659",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F551BM8LB9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x568d872051e7b699d8e056b76d470d3f8a0e423c7a79c7aace4dffb60bebfb27",
      "question": "Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ahmed al-Sharaa ceases to be President of Syria for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Ahmed al-Sharaa's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within th",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether Ahmed al-Sharaa ceases to be President of Syria by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ahmed al-Sharaa ceases to be President of Syria for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Ahmed al-Sharaa's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Ahmed al-Sharaa and the government of Syria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Ahmed al-Sharaa and the government of Syria",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 68701.21266,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ahmed al sharaa",
        "leadership",
        "politics",
        "syria"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-F551BM8LB9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}