{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KKQ4XW7FY4",
  "slug": "ai-bubble-burst-by",
  "question": "Will the AI bubble burst by 2026?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "ai-bubble",
    "market-downturn",
    "tech-sector",
    "financial-crisis",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether an AI industry downturn or bubble burst occurs across three sequential deadlines: December 31, 2025, March 31, 2026, and December 31, 2026. All three use Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle for resolution. The December 2025 and March 2026 markets have already passed their deadlines and reflect resolved states. The December 2026 market remains the live instrument for current positioning on an AI correction.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-8SKFQ12243",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.171,
    "implied_probability": 0.171
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0VJ7WCN6X1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KKQ4XW7FY4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8ec758e2a6344ea1e9c74a2205bf05e42e313111b3d4cdca95d6e53fde5be5d7",
      "question": "AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2025?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:\n- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.\n- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.\n- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2025: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T09:50:37Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:\n- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.\n- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.\n- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.\n- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.\n- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:\nhttps://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.\n- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.\n\nThis market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.\n\nThis market will not resolve to \"Yes\" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "silicondata.com",
            "url": "https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 46,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 202990.851035,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-87C1F2A519",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai industry",
        "bubble",
        "downturn"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SY3Y6WGJT3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KKQ4XW7FY4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb31b91d45d51290686752c7f2f5388c2bd7a08920ce6b97567e72279da5c78e1",
      "question": "AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:\n- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.\n- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.\n- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T12:45:39Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:\n- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.\n- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.\n- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.\n- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.\n- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:\nhttps://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.\n- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.\n\nThis market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.\n\nThis market will not resolve to \"Yes\" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 46,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 385004.353555,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-AC44B2099B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai industry",
        "bubble",
        "downturn"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8SKFQ12243",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KKQ4XW7FY4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x857398c4502bc725fef7efb3cd503a30d3e18e486ab8173fdf505a76cf83b168",
      "question": "AI bubble burst in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:\n- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.\n- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.\n- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:\n- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.\n- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.\n- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.\n- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.\n- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:\nhttps://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.\n- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.\n\nThis market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.\n\nThis market will not resolve to \"Yes\" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index",
        "sources": [
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.171,
      "implied_probability": 0.171,
      "volume_24h_usd": 59.884811,
      "volume_total_usd": 2320819.277615912,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-5F3DD437FF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "bubble",
        "downturn"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SY3Y6WGJT3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T12:45:39Z",
      "final_price": null,
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0VJ7WCN6X1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
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      "resolved_at": "2026-01-01T09:50:37Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-KKQ4XW7FY4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}