{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KKQ4XW7FY4",
  "slug": "ai-bubble-burst-by",
  "question": "Will the AI bubble burst by 2026?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "ai-bubble",
    "market-downturn",
    "tech-valuation",
    "2026-resolution",
    "business-cycle"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the AI sector experiences a recognized downturn or bubble burst across three sequential deadlines. The December 2025 and March 2026 markets have already resolved via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, with the March 2026 contract settling on April 1, 2026. The December 2026 market remains open, pricing a full-year window for an AI industry downturn. All three contracts resolve through Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle without a standardized index trigger, leaving resolution criteria subject to interpretation at each deadline.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-8SKFQ12243",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.118,
    "implied_probability": 0.118,
    "as_of": "2026-09-07T07:00:43.371Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SY3Y6WGJT3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KKQ4XW7FY4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb31b91d45d51290686752c7f2f5388c2bd7a08920ce6b97567e72279da5c78e1",
      "question": "AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:\n- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.\n- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.\n- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T12:45:39Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:\n- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.\n- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.\n- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.\n- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.\n- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:\nhttps://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.\n- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.\n\nThis market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.\n\nThis market will not resolve to \"Yes\" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "silicondata.com",
            "url": "https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 385004.353555,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-AC44B2099B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai industry",
        "bubble",
        "downturn"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8SKFQ12243",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KKQ4XW7FY4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x857398c4502bc725fef7efb3cd503a30d3e18e486ab8173fdf505a76cf83b168",
      "question": "AI bubble burst in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:\n- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.\n- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.\n- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:\n- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.\n- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.\n- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.\n- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.\n- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:\nhttps://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.\n- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.\n\nThis market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.\n\nThis market will not resolve to \"Yes\" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "silicondata.com",
            "url": "https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.118,
      "implied_probability": 0.118,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T07:00:43.371Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 862.153757,
      "volume_total_usd": 2366240.9585150047,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-5F3DD437FF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai industry",
        "bubble",
        "downturn"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0VJ7WCN6X1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KKQ4XW7FY4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8ec758e2a6344ea1e9c74a2205bf05e42e313111b3d4cdca95d6e53fde5be5d7",
      "question": "AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2025?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:\n- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.\n- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.\n- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2025: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T09:50:37Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:\n- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.\n- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.\n- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.\n- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.\n- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:\nhttps://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.\n- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.\n\nThis market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.\n\nThis market will not resolve to \"Yes\" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 202990.851035,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-87C1F2A519",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "bubble",
        "downturn"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SY3Y6WGJT3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T12:45:39Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0VJ7WCN6X1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-01T09:50:37Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-KKQ4XW7FY4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}