{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-LC3ZM0DLY0",
  "slug": "allstate-all-q2-property-liability-combined-ratio-20260725212400685",
  "question": "Will Allstate's Q2 property-liability combined ratio be below 100 by the end of Q2?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "finance",
    "insurance",
    "combined-ratio",
    "q2-2026",
    "earnings-metric"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Allstate's property-liability combined ratio for Q2 2026, sourced from official earnings materials. Five mutually exclusive Polymarket tranches span below 88% through 94% and above, forming a discrete probability distribution over underwriting outcomes. All five resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against Allstate's reported figures. Together the tranches imply a market-derived probability curve over the ratio's magnitude, not a binary directional bet.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-Q9V2CPQ9V8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.47,
    "implied_probability": 0.47
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q9V2CPQ9V8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LC3ZM0DLY0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x08b9f0af1224b9724f80b7942a84468841cc3a10258cd8dd641967dd35beb312",
      "question": "Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio <88%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to Allstate's property-liability combined ratio for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified q",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<88%: Allstate's property-liability combined ratio for Q2 2026, as reported in official earnings materials released by the deadline of August 5, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T21:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to Allstate's property-liability combined ratio for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official earnings materials",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "company's official earnings materials",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "press releases",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "investor presentations",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "regulatory filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.47,
      "implied_probability": 0.47,
      "volume_24h_usd": 871.04772,
      "volume_total_usd": 8932.200428,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 88,
      "question_id": "CMX-CAC774C06C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "all",
        "allstate",
        "allstate property liability",
        "combined-ratio",
        "insurance",
        "q2"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QCWXKN5L42",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LC3ZM0DLY0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xedee861bd04274ea48c68d2af275f42000f77b415d880b69ae9b6d1ab2ee1abd",
      "question": "Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio 88%-90%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to Allstate's property-liability combined ratio for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified q",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "88%-90%: Allstate's property-liability combined ratio for Q2 2026, as reported in official earnings materials released by the deadline of August 5, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T21:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to Allstate's property-liability combined ratio for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official earnings materials",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "company's official earnings materials",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.26,
      "implied_probability": 0.26,
      "volume_24h_usd": 30,
      "volume_total_usd": 615.4100149999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-D45331B2C4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "all",
        "allstate",
        "allstate property liability",
        "combined-ratio",
        "insurance",
        "q2"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GFBJBQ26R6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LC3ZM0DLY0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfa6ef9205d30ab0f6acb462327857e84ddfc74d405ba605a2b1cf5894a268680",
      "question": "Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio 90%-92%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to Allstate's property-liability combined ratio for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified q",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "90%-92%: Allstate's property-liability combined ratio for Q2 2026, as reported in official earnings materials released by the deadline of August 5, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T21:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to Allstate's property-liability combined ratio for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official earnings materials",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "company's official earnings materials",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.17,
      "implied_probability": 0.17,
      "volume_24h_usd": 30,
      "volume_total_usd": 819.087562,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-D45331B2C4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "all",
        "allstate",
        "allstate property liability",
        "combined-ratio",
        "insurance",
        "q2"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0SJRQ13W39",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LC3ZM0DLY0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc90b22d8c22a627cc7479b00e3f81b19496e2159007813500ba4822db713bb8c",
      "question": "Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio 92%-94%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to Allstate's property-liability combined ratio for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified q",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "92%-94%: Allstate's property-liability combined ratio for Q2 2026, as reported in official earnings materials released by the deadline of August 5, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T21:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to Allstate's property-liability combined ratio for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.041,
      "implied_probability": 0.041,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10,
      "volume_total_usd": 489.275433,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
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      "question_id": "CMX-D45331B2C4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "allstate property liability",
        "combined-ratio",
        "insurance",
        "q2"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JB5C46FDT2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LC3ZM0DLY0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe6ba8374ce4e0abd78995fa32b8ab6471c06f056cd971062e9386acc4ab44f9e",
      "question": "Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio 94%+?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to Allstate's property-liability combined ratio for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified q",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "94%+: Allstate's property-liability combined ratio for Q2 2026, as reported in official earnings materials released by the deadline of August 5, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T21:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to Allstate's property-liability combined ratio for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "last_price": 0.063,
      "implied_probability": 0.063,
      "volume_24h_usd": 30,
      "volume_total_usd": 315,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 94,
      "question_id": "CMX-B38D7C73DB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "allstate",
        "allstate property liability",
        "combined-ratio",
        "insurance",
        "q2"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-LC3ZM0DLY0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}