{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-D8QLBS6X19",
  "slug": "andrew-tate-released-from-custody-byptptpt-20260719023459650",
  "question": "Will Andrew Tate be released from custody by 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "legal-custody",
    "andrew-tate",
    "2026",
    "romania"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Andrew Tate will be released from custody by three sequential deadlines: July 31, August 31, and December 31, 2026. The markets are structurally nested: resolution of the July contract informs probability on August, which cascades into December. Each deadline prices a binary release outcome at a distinct time horizon. All three resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-T71G42LP79",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.002,
    "implied_probability": 0.002,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T71G42LP79",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D8QLBS6X19",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xec2888d3b5b43a8e4bc08ccb7ef221deb2a9b6b97c6e3e4b4c9efce385695e2e",
      "question": "Andrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Andrew Tate is released from government custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Tate is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Tate is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nTransporting Andrew Tate to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\". \n\nTemporary outings ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T06:16:12Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Andrew Tate is released from government custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Tate is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Tate is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nTransporting Andrew Tate to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\". \n\nTemporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.\n\nExtradition or transfer to a different jurisdiction of custody will not qualify as a release from custody.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from government authorities or corrections departments",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 99806.69817999995,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "andrew tate",
        "custody",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1353V913H6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D8QLBS6X19",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7ea1e76e67652187bc6c484f832840a92ca3af5f36b5d86b2f78db66b28d972a",
      "question": "Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Andrew Tate is released from government custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Tate is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Tate is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nTransporting Andrew Tate to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\". \n\nTemporary outings ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Andrew Tate is released from government custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Tate is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Tate is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nTransporting Andrew Tate to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\". \n\nTemporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.\n\nExtradition or transfer to a different jurisdiction of custody will not qualify as a release from custody.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from government authorities or corrections departments",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.22,
      "implied_probability": 0.22,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5.26,
      "volume_total_usd": 68064.14471399998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "andrew tate",
        "custody",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P9R5V9XB67",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D8QLBS6X19",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2321275a061c12fd4edb998d8f06a7c5f7b44b862423c8defb072623ba90554b",
      "question": "Andrew Tate released from custody by August 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Andrew Tate is released from government custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Tate is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Tate is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nTransporting Andrew Tate to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\". \n\nTemporary outings ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Andrew Tate is released from government custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Tate is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Tate is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nTransporting Andrew Tate to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\". \n\nTemporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.\n\nExtradition or transfer to a different jurisdiction of custody will not qualify as a release from custody.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from government authorities or corrections departments",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.048,
      "implied_probability": 0.048,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 16884.850949,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "andrew tate",
        "custody",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T71G42LP79",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-08-01T06:16:12Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-D8QLBS6X19",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}