{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-M9R29P6ZH4",
  "slug": "another-critical-cloudflare-incident-by-123",
  "question": "Will there be another critical Cloudflare incident by 2026-07-03?",
  "category": "companies",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "companies",
    "cloudflare",
    "tech-infrastructure",
    "incident-prediction",
    "business-continuity",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Cloudflare experiences another critical service incident by each respective month-end deadline in 2026. The four contracts are sequential binary options on the same underlying event type, creating an implicit term structure of outage probability. Later deadlines carry higher cumulative probability, as each extends the exposure window. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing publicly documented Cloudflare incident disclosures.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-K7FJ8TT427",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.234,
    "implied_probability": 0.234
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DCZ4RTXR95",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M9R29P6ZH4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5b9e1c557b6dd155fed752f86421146105f29abecf3a6a4008ea7d9a289686d1",
      "question": "Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nClassifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.\n\nQualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as critical when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. \n\nAn incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-03T12:03:20Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nClassifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.\n\nQualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as critical when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. \n\nAn incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.\n\nRevisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to Critical will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Cloudflare (for example, on cloudflarestatus.com or cloudflarestatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "cloudflarestatus.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "cloudflarestatus.com",
            "url": "cloudflarestatus.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "cloudflarestatus.com/history",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "cloudflarestatus.com",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 8071.727124999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F45BA9A03C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cloudflare",
        "incident",
        "outage"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1NCR6L2KT3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M9R29P6ZH4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x51e4861640ede9b0e2d29001a6b6fee14879332a1f065fda62f87b30ce6eb292",
      "question": "Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nClassifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.\n\nQualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as critical when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. \n\nAn incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-02T07:03:33Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nClassifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.\n\nQualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as critical when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. \n\nAn incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.\n\nRevisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to Critical will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Cloudflare (for example, on cloudflarestatus.com or cloudflarestatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "cloudflarestatus.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "cloudflarestatus.com",
            "url": "cloudflarestatus.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "cloudflarestatus.com/history",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "cloudflarestatus.com",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 11812.687595,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-258C5849D6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cloudflare",
        "incident",
        "outage"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K7FJ8TT427",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M9R29P6ZH4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5856328392136a28db888aa672f6d16cc12d7728c004ef236556ad7fd6ca2125",
      "question": "Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nClassifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.\n\nQualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as critical when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. \n\nAn incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nClassifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.\n\nQualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as critical when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. \n\nAn incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.\n\nRevisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to Critical will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Cloudflare (for example, on cloudflarestatus.com or cloudflarestatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "cloudflarestatus.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "cloudflarestatus.com",
            "url": "cloudflarestatus.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "cloudflarestatus.com/history",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "cloudflarestatus.com",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.234,
      "implied_probability": 0.234,
      "volume_24h_usd": 115.285636,
      "volume_total_usd": 12589.517278,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-8C98F017D7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cloudflare",
        "incident",
        "outage"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8JFS2P8Z91",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M9R29P6ZH4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb698ecee40e32e3847b5c448473fb363ef3249b51b2357ba41e8c77f98c4f9f1",
      "question": "Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nClassifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.\n\nQualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as critical when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. \n\nAn incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nClassifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.\n\nQualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as critical when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. \n\nAn incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.\n\nRevisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to Critical will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Cloudflare (for example, on cloudflarestatus.com or cloudflarestatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "cloudflarestatus.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "cloudflarestatus.com",
            "url": "cloudflarestatus.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "cloudflarestatus.com/history",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "cloudflarestatus.com",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.65,
      "implied_probability": 0.65,
      "volume_24h_usd": 56.85714,
      "volume_total_usd": 2376.640872,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-DD651F61DB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cloudflare",
        "incident",
        "outage"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1NCR6L2KT3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-08-02T07:03:33Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DCZ4RTXR95",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-07-03T12:03:20Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-M9R29P6ZH4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}