{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-8DKHLXP492",
  "slug": "another-critical-cloudflare-incident-by-995",
  "question": "Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?",
  "category": "companies",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "companies",
    "cloudflare",
    "tech-incident",
    "infrastructure",
    "business-continuity",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Cloudflare logs a Critical-severity incident on its official status page by three sequential deadlines: May 31, June 30, and September 30, 2026. The three Polymarket contracts are nested binary outcomes, each extending the observation window. Longer windows carry higher implied probability of an incident occurring. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle referencing Cloudflare's status page incident classifications marked Critical in red.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-01T8W88LZ5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DXDLYDM2S6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8DKHLXP492",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x71ae0e87ed7f12c78c4677404c5c1df18322223a6f49701d07d85163d804d73e",
      "question": "Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nClassifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.\n\nQualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as critical when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. \n\nAn incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Cloudflare's status page incident classifications as resolved and marked Critical (red) between market creation and May 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nClassifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.\n\nQualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as critical when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. \n\nAn incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.\n\nRevisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to Critical will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Cloudflare (for example, on cloudflarestatus.com or cloudflarestatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "uncommitted_illustrative"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5153.573558000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 19241.866586999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F45BA9A03C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cloudflare",
        "incident",
        "outage"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-01T8W88LZ5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8DKHLXP492",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x05d4246d5278fd06e9d2bd37d9f43f8a5f1be5278d72a7bab075622ba37169b0",
      "question": "Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nClassifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.\n\nQualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as critical when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. \n\nAn incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Cloudflare's status page incident classifications as resolved and marked Critical (red) between market creation and May 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nClassifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.\n\nQualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as critical when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. \n\nAn incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.\n\nRevisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to Critical will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Cloudflare (for example, on cloudflarestatus.com or cloudflarestatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "uncommitted_illustrative"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 672.250428,
      "volume_total_usd": 25592.703514,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-D9097CD7B0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cloudflare",
        "incident",
        "outage"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0YDC88MHP3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8DKHLXP492",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3c5921c2dc445e07236fabaab789e8b5b219cc73199e82160b17b9539d758d4b",
      "question": "Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nClassifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.\n\nQualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as critical when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. \n\nAn incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Cloudflare's status page incident classifications as resolved and marked Critical (red) between market creation and May 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nClassifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.\n\nQualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as critical when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. \n\nAn incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.\n\nRevisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to Critical will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Cloudflare (for example, on cloudflarestatus.com or cloudflarestatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "uncommitted_illustrative"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 278.8,
      "volume_total_usd": 7761.305615,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-DD651F61DB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cloudflare",
        "incident",
        "outage"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DXDLYDM2S6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-01T8W88LZ5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0YDC88MHP3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-8DKHLXP492",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}