{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-PQDW14N7X2",
  "slug": "another-crypto-hack-over-100m-by",
  "question": "Will there be another crypto hack exceeding $100 million by 2026-05-01?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "security-breach",
    "hacking",
    "2027",
    "crypto-exchange",
    "theft"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether a single crypto hack exceeding $100 million occurs by each successive deadline in 2026. The four Polymarket contracts form a time-structured series: April 30, June 30, September 30, and December 31. Each resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. Later-dated contracts nest the earlier outcomes, so a confirmed hack before April 30 should resolve all four affirmatively.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-3KQ0H0C6N4",
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    "implied_probability": 0.002
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DX8G25FPM2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PQDW14N7X2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xba0035fa1359a44d3f0ad8255f62208d41329c1dc37883c8010862527c596933",
      "question": "Another crypto hack over $100m by April 30?",
      "description": "This is a market on whether any crypto project or exchange suffers an exploit or hack of value at least $100 million USD equivalent between the creation of this market and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nDecentralized exchanges and lending protocol hacks will count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard (https://rekt.news/leaderboard/), however a credible consensus of reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "April 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-01T08:25:56Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market on whether any crypto project or exchange suffers an exploit or hack of value at least $100 million USD equivalent between the creation of this market and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nDecentralized exchanges and lending protocol hacks will count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard (https://rekt.news/leaderboard/), however a credible consensus of reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://rekt.news/leaderboard/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "rekt.news",
            "url": "https://rekt.news/leaderboard/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Rekt News leaderboard (https://rekt.news/leaderboard/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.051,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2398.259149,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 100000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-81F37F5599",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "breach",
        "crypto",
        "crypto hack",
        "hack",
        "security"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3KQ0H0C6N4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PQDW14N7X2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x74964bb19e7fe723f40d44fcbba26260dc473c84ac72f63b59c5bca9d3bfa588",
      "question": "Another crypto hack over $100m by June 30?",
      "description": "This is a market on whether any crypto project or exchange suffers an exploit or hack of value at least $100 million USD equivalent between the creation of this market and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nDecentralized exchanges and lending protocol hacks will count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard (https://rekt.news/leaderboard/), however a credible consensus of reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-09T06:56:49Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market on whether any crypto project or exchange suffers an exploit or hack of value at least $100 million USD equivalent between the creation of this market and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nDecentralized exchanges and lending protocol hacks will count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard (https://rekt.news/leaderboard/), however a credible consensus of reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://rekt.news/leaderboard/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "rekt.news",
            "url": "https://rekt.news/leaderboard/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Rekt News leaderboard (https://rekt.news/leaderboard/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 7572.320665000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 100000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-EE0B7FA5D3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "breach",
        "crypto",
        "crypto hack",
        "hack",
        "security"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TL8M24T887",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PQDW14N7X2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x109aca9db6a61cc822236f2fb5ffdb4307ee19217c5ea95732e7fbc908ee7cf6",
      "question": "Another crypto hack over $100m by September 30?",
      "description": "This is a market on whether any crypto project or exchange suffers an exploit or hack of value at least $100 million USD equivalent between the creation of this market and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nDecentralized exchanges and lending protocol hacks will count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard (https://rekt.news/leaderboard/), however a credible consensus of reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market on whether any crypto project or exchange suffers an exploit or hack of value at least $100 million USD equivalent between the creation of this market and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nDecentralized exchanges and lending protocol hacks will count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard (https://rekt.news/leaderboard/), however a credible consensus of reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://rekt.news/leaderboard/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "rekt.news",
            "url": "https://rekt.news/leaderboard/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Rekt News leaderboard (https://rekt.news/leaderboard/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.487,
      "implied_probability": 0.487,
      "volume_24h_usd": 20.924021,
      "volume_total_usd": 1779.3153010000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 100000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-6319CD5E82",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "breach",
        "crypto",
        "crypto hack",
        "hack",
        "security"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-98641PMC21",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PQDW14N7X2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa6249356d3a0763985bbc1f3e87a8e54d98bd47004113f837a74c26a6b1468e9",
      "question": "Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31?",
      "description": "This is a market on whether any crypto project or exchange suffers an exploit or hack of value at least $100 million USD equivalent between the creation of this market and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nDecentralized exchanges and lending protocol hacks will count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard (https://rekt.news/leaderboard/), however a credible consensus of reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market on whether any crypto project or exchange suffers an exploit or hack of value at least $100 million USD equivalent between the creation of this market and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nDecentralized exchanges and lending protocol hacks will count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard (https://rekt.news/leaderboard/), however a credible consensus of reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://rekt.news/leaderboard/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "rekt.news",
            "url": "https://rekt.news/leaderboard/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Rekt News leaderboard (https://rekt.news/leaderboard/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.601,
      "implied_probability": 0.601,
      "volume_24h_usd": 50,
      "volume_total_usd": 2301.75661,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 100000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-A8C5E56FFD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "breach",
        "crypto",
        "crypto hack",
        "hack",
        "security"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3KQ0H0C6N4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-09T06:56:49Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DX8G25FPM2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-01T08:25:56Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-PQDW14N7X2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}