{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KFVCG81549",
  "slug": "another-nato-article-4-byptptpt-20260726214235871",
  "question": "Will another NATO Article 4 invocation occur by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "nato",
    "collective-defense",
    "international-security",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether any NATO member invokes Article 4 consultations again before three successive deadlines in 2026. All three are binary Polymarket contracts, structured as expanding time horizons: August 31, October 31, and December 31. Each resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against publicly verifiable NATO consultation records. The August contract is the most constrained; the December contract embeds the probability of the earlier two.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-J5WTV83PM0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.06
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J5WTV83PM0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KFVCG81549",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3bd031e0f77ca0d50bf867947e92190ff9316d2ce93f4bc4858d047681629a83",
      "question": "Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026?",
      "description": "NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No\".\n\nArticle 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked.\n\nFor example, Poland's request for consultations on September 1",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No\".\n\nArticle 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked.\n\nFor example, Poland's request for consultations on September 10, 2025, or Estonia's request on September 24, 2025 would each qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nIf a member state only expresses intent to or is considering invoking Article 4, that alone does not suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO; authoritative statements from the requesting member government may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from NATO",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "authoritative statements from the requesting member government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "NATO",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_24h_usd": 512.14,
      "volume_total_usd": 7030.523932,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "collective-defense",
        "geopolitics",
        "nato",
        "nato article invocation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SHCRBWYFY1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KFVCG81549",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x726f8c733ea83c15eb7bf25eca3fb324440c78a49fd2e233138214c69cdb46f0",
      "question": "Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?",
      "description": "NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No\".\n\nArticle 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked.\n\nFor example, Poland's request for consultations on September 1",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "October 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-10-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No\".\n\nArticle 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked.\n\nFor example, Poland's request for consultations on September 10, 2025, or Estonia's request on September 24, 2025 would each qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nIf a member state only expresses intent to or is considering invoking Article 4, that alone does not suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO; authoritative statements from the requesting member government may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from NATO",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "authoritative statements from the requesting member government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "NATO",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.22,
      "implied_probability": 0.22,
      "volume_24h_usd": 13.779511,
      "volume_total_usd": 3481.0328139999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "geopolitics",
        "nato",
        "nato article invocation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X3LM5B5547",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KFVCG81549",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9962e726dfb4d0e063c3111fe9c2e1f4ad4740721c03b4c5e8bea046d33ecf34",
      "question": "Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No\".\n\nArticle 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked.\n\nFor example, Poland's request for consultations on September 1",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No\".\n\nArticle 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked.\n\nFor example, Poland's request for consultations on September 10, 2025, or Estonia's request on September 24, 2025 would each qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nIf a member state only expresses intent to or is considering invoking Article 4, that alone does not suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO; authoritative statements from the requesting member government may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from NATO",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "authoritative statements from the requesting member government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "NATO",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.33,
      "implied_probability": 0.33,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2178.725294,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "collective-defense",
        "geopolitics",
        "nato",
        "nato article invocation"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-KFVCG81549",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}