{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-DPRQQSZLC3",
  "slug": "another-us-government-shutdown-house-winner-2026",
  "question": "Will the US government shut down and the Republican Party win the House in the 2026 elections?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "congress",
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "us-government-shutdown",
    "house-2026",
    "compound-event"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks two concurrent political outcomes: a U.S. government shutdown by January 31, 2026, and the 2026 House midterm winner. The four primary markets form a joint-probability matrix across shutdown and no-shutdown scenarios against Democratic or Republican House control. A fifth \"other\" bucket captures residual or ambiguous outcomes. All five markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing the U.S. Office of Personnel Management for shutdown status and national election results for House control.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-DWD7F73RR7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.001,
    "implied_probability": 0.001
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WCKDDQT242",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DPRQQSZLC3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9317b943475e9d550402f328a1ea9cb5f69a616ffd471cffb0a4978ac22a8c3c",
      "question": "Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).\n\nThe rules and resolution criteria are as follows:\n\n1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?\nThis market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Shutdown & Democratic Party: U.S. Office of Personnel Management announcement of a federal government shutdown by January 31, 2026, and the named candidate's party winning the House, resolved by Optimistic Oracle by February 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).\n\nThe rules and resolution criteria are as follows:\n\n1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?\nThis market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nPartial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).\n\n2. Which party will win the House in 2026?\nThis market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "polymarket.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "polymarket.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "opm.gov",
            "url": "https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM)",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.85,
      "implied_probability": 0.85,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 53273.12498800003,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "house-2026",
        "shutdown",
        "us government shutdown",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DWD7F73RR7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DPRQQSZLC3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa28f25a88676a74bc08b86e9d8ef9be3ccc076d8bc1c8f6e2ed8b90e1c088967",
      "question": "Will there be no US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).\n\nThe rules and resolution criteria are as follows:\n\n1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?\nThis market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No Shutdown & Democratic Party: U.S. Office of Personnel Management announcement of a federal government shutdown by January 31, 2026, and the named candidate's party winning the House, resolved by Optimistic Oracle by February 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-02-01T16:32:18Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).\n\nThe rules and resolution criteria are as follows:\n\n1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?\nThis market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nPartial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).\n\n2. Which party will win the House in 2026?\nThis market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "polymarket.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "polymarket.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "opm.gov",
            "url": "https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM)",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 114128.089046,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "house-2026",
        "no us government",
        "shutdown",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PTV586C608",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DPRQQSZLC3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x496ca08711d9957de1d9d64fa5a8cb76a6d68b926e0deb3f223cc1f8379fcdb0",
      "question": "Will something else occur?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).\n\nThe rules and resolution criteria are as follows:\n\n1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?\nThis market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Other: U.S. Office of Personnel Management announcement of a federal government shutdown by January 31, 2026, and the named candidate's party winning the House, resolved by Optimistic Oracle by February 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).\n\nThe rules and resolution criteria are as follows:\n\n1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?\nThis market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nPartial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).\n\n2. Which party will win the House in 2026?\nThis market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "polymarket.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "polymarket.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "opm.gov",
            "url": "https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM)",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "house-2026",
        "other outcome",
        "shutdown",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CB7WRBSKZ9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DPRQQSZLC3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x02df71403f5136e9c803231cb8e2333a1b9f575bb51792bd91bde8dfe4242220",
      "question": "Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).\n\nThe rules and resolution criteria are as follows:\n\n1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?\nThis market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Shutdown & Republican Party: U.S. Office of Personnel Management announcement of a federal government shutdown by January 31, 2026, and the named candidate's party winning the House, resolved by Optimistic Oracle by February 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).\n\nThe rules and resolution criteria are as follows:\n\n1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?\nThis market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nPartial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).\n\n2. Which party will win the House in 2026?\nThis market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "polymarket.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "polymarket.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "opm.gov",
            "url": "https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM)",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.144,
      "implied_probability": 0.144,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4.23,
      "volume_total_usd": 66081.13668300003,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "house-2026",
        "shutdown",
        "us government shutdown",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SZLJ4DWDV9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DPRQQSZLC3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x43eab833542e3a97929c60d4e921b6f73156fd41c6e1e51d977131ac6f8b4f67",
      "question": "Will there be no US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).\n\nThe rules and resolution criteria are as follows:\n\n1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?\nThis market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No Shutdown & Republican Party: U.S. Office of Personnel Management announcement of a federal government shutdown by January 31, 2026, and the named candidate's party winning the House, resolved by Optimistic Oracle by February 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-02-01T16:33:38Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).\n\nThe rules and resolution criteria are as follows:\n\n1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?\nThis market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nPartial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).\n\n2. Which party will win the House in 2026?\nThis market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "polymarket.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?",
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