{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-MQP4PMXM47",
  "slug": "anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap",
  "question": "Will Anthropic's IPO closing market cap exceed $X by the IPO date?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "tech",
    "finance",
    "ipo",
    "anthropic"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Anthropic's first-day IPO closing market capitalization through June 30, 2026. Polymarket structures the event as six discrete market cap tiers plus a no-IPO binary outcome. Each tier resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the listed company's closing market cap on IPO day. A no-IPO resolution by June 30, 2026 triggers a separate settlement path across all contracts.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-MKWPTXZTN2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TZJJFWB5F5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MQP4PMXM47",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x40ead87026416ba8444c67b19fe9903b3a89b9c301985646a22c4d2e93fbf057",
      "question": "Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by June 30, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<100B: The listed company's first-day IPO closing market capitalization, or non-IPO resolution by June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by June 30, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.5,
      "volume_total_usd": 310445.4224540006,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 100,
      "question_id": "CMX-D5F66EF58C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthropic",
        "ipo",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C3G7STLJ42",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MQP4PMXM47",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbd90e8c5bcccb80d29890de5b70657b77e3d4454b2028531be9b3feee1c1baaf",
      "question": "Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by June 30, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "100–200B: The listed company's first-day IPO closing market capitalization, or non-IPO resolution by June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by June 30, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 153159.29527599984,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-8D5C67878C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthropic",
        "ipo",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TCLQ7QMDY5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MQP4PMXM47",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x138c8f644e5730c2e4c1f408552babf2b695b9799b213f252cfa2554d0709b71",
      "question": "Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by June 30, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "200–300B: The listed company's first-day IPO closing market capitalization, or non-IPO resolution by June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by June 30, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.6,
      "volume_total_usd": 180957.77631800048,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-46A79F9925",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthropic",
        "ipo",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DSL9VD5YT0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MQP4PMXM47",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xff54b9602883d013580a41c1c8ab52ed9d6af837e4dc71a76804b372ec721ad3",
      "question": "Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by June 30, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "300–400B: The listed company's first-day IPO closing market capitalization, or non-IPO resolution by June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by June 30, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 132417.3771049996,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-46A79F9925",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthropic",
        "ipo",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BVCVW00TY4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MQP4PMXM47",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdb9d3c46ca316a14d585c1657fb22a76ef24f67d7cd57ed9ecdfe7c419031189",
      "question": "Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by June 30, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "400–600B: The listed company's first-day IPO closing market capitalization, or non-IPO resolution by June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by June 30, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5406.426,
      "volume_total_usd": 217419.72133999976,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-3DDF44285F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthropic",
        "ipo",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LCT187D5Q9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MQP4PMXM47",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd1f296e1f58f9e7f6b0eb8a4f25c4e6759528c44e30c714debc311a4b5407afb",
      "question": "Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by June 30, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "600B+: The listed company's first-day IPO closing market capitalization, or non-IPO resolution by June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by June 30, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 374.0075,
      "volume_total_usd": 322887.590665,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 600,
      "question_id": "CMX-5C529FDE7D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthropic",
        "ipo",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MKWPTXZTN2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MQP4PMXM47",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xaf4c3ba4d1b1568d4309bba0874cb7eec1e5b40a648f4a26b12efa2e9b5ee8a4",
      "question": "Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by June 30, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No IPO by June 30, 2026: The listed company's first-day IPO closing market capitalization, or non-IPO resolution by June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by June 30, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
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