{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-WFPGFM4WQ0",
  "slug": "anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-119",
  "question": "Will Anthropic's IPO closing market cap be less than $20 billion?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "tech",
    "ai",
    "finance",
    "anthropic-ipo",
    "valuation-brackets"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Anthropic's IPO-day closing market cap across discrete valuation brackets, expiring December 31, 2027. Each bracket is a binary contract; together they form a mutually exclusive, exhaustive probability distribution over cap outcomes. A no-IPO contract runs in parallel, capturing the event-risk that Anthropic does not list by deadline. All seven markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-14J94Q5JC8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.012,
    "implied_probability": 0.012
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z5GH8M5SW7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WFPGFM4WQ0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x42b6f4d145592c758e7aec35ed1d1f15353d077b7433d15577a059362dfeccce",
      "question": "Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "100–200B: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 71801.98396800004,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-ACF18EC3EA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthropic",
        "ipo",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8P4707L5Z0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WFPGFM4WQ0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xba2ca4c6c135e9208beb26c3e8536f70e1bd660bee81100de1d51b3d74efe539",
      "question": "Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "300–400B: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 68463.65599799999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-ACF18EC3EA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthropic",
        "ipo",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V5SSK4D046",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WFPGFM4WQ0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc9540131d858a0e218aa9ec78accf9675501a3d3009fe2d28df10bbbbb9a1179",
      "question": "Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "600B+: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.89,
      "implied_probability": 0.89,
      "volume_24h_usd": 12,
      "volume_total_usd": 42751.613543000014,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 600000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-5083CCC718",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthropic",
        "ipo",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-14J94Q5JC8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WFPGFM4WQ0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x84251521e4ddae0bd1b97bc2b9b52222cc47ee8707b5e9afaf786f290b4b88e7",
      "question": "Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<100B: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.012,
      "implied_probability": 0.012,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 150734.78404000003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 100000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-2BCE73BE8B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthropic",
        "ipo",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VZ0JHTYZ56",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WFPGFM4WQ0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xca8322796d748070cf8c9847443526cc2452a0787ff1c5810a41b5adbaf206f6",
      "question": "Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "200–300B: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 18872.863942,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-ACF18EC3EA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthropic",
        "ipo",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3FZFHR2FQ4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WFPGFM4WQ0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x96a641513a2517d8a43b2db928789d72b5d3dedbc0f34b6cba782af44cee9d70",
      "question": "Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "400–600B: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.008,
      "implied_probability": 0.008,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 20929.532721000007,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-DB1763F2A6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthropic",
        "ipo",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G45TCB57D3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WFPGFM4WQ0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1d0cc72a80f7c22f310fe67985edd951972b1d1bd13990314cd3e704a73426d2",
      "question": "Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No IPO by December 31, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.041,
      "implied_probability": 0.041,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 27324.425426999987,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-81B27D4FD5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthropic",
        "ipo"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-WFPGFM4WQ0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}