{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-JCL1Q35R76",
  "slug": "anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-higher-strikes",
  "question": "Will Anthropic's IPO closing market cap exceed $100 billion?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "anthropic-ipo",
    "market-capitalization",
    "ai-valuation",
    "finance",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Anthropic's closing market capitalization on its IPO day, with resolution contingent on the company going public by December 31, 2026. Polymarket structures the event as nine mutually exclusive cap-range tiers spanning below $1.25T to above $3.0T, plus a binary no-IPO leg covering non-occurrence through December 31, 2027. The no-IPO contract introduces an asymmetric time horizon, resolving against a 2027 deadline while the valuation tiers close at end of 2026. Resolution across all legs follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using public market data as the authoritative source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-F8HH7W8JK6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.13,
    "implied_probability": 0.13
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F8HH7W8JK6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JCL1Q35R76",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x800376dc64e4e2376a495ed0df4a789192256c821bb4d1452acdd5931bca2fa5",
      "question": "Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<$1.25T: The named company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, per public market data, or \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\" if no IPO occurs by that deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 30748.257752,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 1.25,
      "question_id": "CMX-30B6E7745B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthropic",
        "ipo",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S5DSJPRGJ5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JCL1Q35R76",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x67644dafb1cb9f5dda7cc1b5666e93c1ca539da38cafb17b4ebca6493a04e25b",
      "question": "Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$1.25–$1.5T: The named company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, per public market data, or \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\" if no IPO occurs by that deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 24297.67461800001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-32A422F0AA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthropic",
        "ipo",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8TFKZDQS78",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JCL1Q35R76",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe02dadd92c84112fce087b6f260d62c8df1648e071acaef35b0851c8dde64163",
      "question": "Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$1.5–$1.75T: The named company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, per public market data, or \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\" if no IPO occurs by that deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.154,
      "implied_probability": 0.154,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 18205.18453399999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-32A422F0AA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthropic",
        "ipo",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CG7HVBX6M6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JCL1Q35R76",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdded1086ea6aca11f88b997328ff3b0f5bb9374e5ecb450422c862f67c9f3cbe",
      "question": "Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$1.75–$2.0T: The named company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, per public market data, or \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\" if no IPO occurs by that deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 13662.443415999998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-32A422F0AA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthropic",
        "ipo",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z814B1K9Z0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JCL1Q35R76",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3d555d528a9a5f94a733741d75a3f707731f5e42237006aed81e191d9dd43d1d",
      "question": "Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$2.0–$2.25T: The named company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, per public market data, or \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\" if no IPO occurs by that deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.117,
      "implied_probability": 0.117,
      "volume_24h_usd": 292.74,
      "volume_total_usd": 23378.249834999995,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-32A422F0AA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthropic",
        "ipo",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W0VBTL0G77",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JCL1Q35R76",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc52d95f58a395fb61a16c87d96eeac8b4d52b53d48eef9d45df1c7270bd08ad0",
      "question": "Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$2.25–$2.5T: The named company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, per public market data, or \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\" if no IPO occurs by that deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": 253.98999999999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 17229.511659999996,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-32A422F0AA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthropic",
        "ipo",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MHDCVHPRF5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JCL1Q35R76",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x76876411a19595cd5881170954806cc1c51ec66528e0739231f2aaabeceadb36",
      "question": "Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$2.5–$2.75T: The named company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, per public market data, or \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\" if no IPO occurs by that deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.061,
      "implied_probability": 0.061,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 14078.659033999991,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-32A422F0AA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthropic",
        "ipo",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-781TWF7PN9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JCL1Q35R76",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8344e39c752c8d5984f45e3b8e079bb11c239214600eeb1fef0b51b344e99ba2",
      "question": "Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$2.75–$3.0T: The named company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, per public market data, or \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\" if no IPO occurs by that deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.022,
      "implied_probability": 0.022,
      "volume_24h_usd": 276.19,
      "volume_total_usd": 6985.338662,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-32A422F0AA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthropic",
        "ipo",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NJN00K61X8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JCL1Q35R76",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb0d2fa1aacbf2e91248f2d69d9364e6ef644177de0141e23313c5b2a28f5cf60",
      "question": "Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$3.0T+: The named company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, per public market data, or \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\" if no IPO occurs by that deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 15171.334608999996,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-6B0240BAAC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthropic",
        "ipo",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G947XZQJY9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JCL1Q35R76",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8e4cfba82d83a14165a4fa84ca61c2ca83975dff28ca4fc65c96ffb6b206beb6",
      "question": "Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No IPO by December 31, 2027: The named company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, per public market data, or \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\" if no IPO occurs by that deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.027,
      "implied_probability": 0.027,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 12439.389539,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-81B27D4FD5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthropic",
        "ipo"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-JCL1Q35R76",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}