{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-DFXL2V6NC6",
  "slug": "anthropic-openai-vs-meta-higher-valuation-on-june-30",
  "question": "Will Anthropic and OpenAI combined have a higher valuation than Meta on June 30?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai-valuation",
    "tech-finance",
    "valuation-comparison",
    "anthropic-openai",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Anthropic and OpenAI's combined private valuations exceed Meta's public market capitalization on June 30, 2026. Only Polymarket is pricing this event, structured as a binary outcome. Resolution is handled by Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, which will determine combined private marks against Meta's publicly observable capitalization. Private valuation figures for Anthropic and OpenAI carry inherent subjectivity, as no exchange-listed price exists.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KWLKB5B6V6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KWLKB5B6V6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DFXL2V6NC6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7cf5ef2095c0905afe8b1387158fc617a48e2abaefcf4712321114c8043c7031",
      "question": "Anthropic + OpenAI vs Meta - higher valuation on June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"OpenAI + Anthropic\" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Meta's market capitalization on June 30, 2026, or to \"Meta\" if Meta's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation.\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle determines the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI versus Meta's public market capitalization as of June 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"OpenAI + Anthropic\" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Meta's market capitalization on June 30, 2026, or to \"Meta\" if Meta's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation.\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.\n\nIf a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.\n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nIf Anthropic and OpenAI's combined valuation is equal to Meta's public market capitalization at resolution, each outcome will resolve to 0.5.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "fe.secondmarket.com",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 46,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 10006.115701,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-421A2CBBE9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthropic",
        "anthropic openai combined",
        "meta",
        "openai",
        "tech",
        "valuation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KWLKB5B6V6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T19:53:52Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-DFXL2V6NC6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}