{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-DR0VQ5P2S5",
  "slug": "anthropic-removes-paid-plan-access-for-fable-5-byptptpt-20260713185755110",
  "question": "Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by 2026-07-20?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "anthropic",
    "product-discontinuation",
    "claude-fable",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "Both markets track whether Anthropic revokes paid-plan access to Fable 5, a Claude-integrated product. The July 19 market closes sooner; the July 31 market extends the deadline by twelve days. Together they price the probability of removal across two discrete time horizons. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-HTZB6MCY49",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.001,
    "implied_probability": 0.001
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HTZB6MCY49",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DR0VQ5P2S5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xac246fd6a0853f418532c97c57fc66178652fe0eeb657c64c293cb4160745420",
      "question": "Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 19, 2026?",
      "description": "On July 12, 2026, Anthropic announced that it was extending access to Claude Fable 5 on all paid plans through July 19, 2026, ahead of the previously scheduled cutoff after which the model would move to usage-credit-only billing (https://x.com/claudeai/status/2076351399999557669).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic removes access to \"Claude Fable 5\" from qualifying paid plans by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying removal requires Fable 5 to no longer be included within standard usage limits, without requiring usage credits for ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 19: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-19T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-20T06:48:42Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On July 12, 2026, Anthropic announced that it was extending access to Claude Fable 5 on all paid plans through July 19, 2026, ahead of the previously scheduled cutoff after which the model would move to usage-credit-only billing (https://x.com/claudeai/status/2076351399999557669).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic removes access to \"Claude Fable 5\" from qualifying paid plans by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying removal requires Fable 5 to no longer be included within standard usage limits, without requiring usage credits for baseline access, on all of the Pro, Max, or Team plans. Moving Fable 5 to usage-credit-only access on all paid plans will qualify. Removing included access only from some of these plans will not qualify. Access through the Enterprise plan will not be considered.\n\nAnnouncements alone will not qualify. Qualifying paid-plan access must actually be removed by the listed date.\n\nThe percentage cap itself is irrelevant to qualification (higher, lower, unchanged, or removed all count), so long as Fable 5 remains available within the included allowance. Reducing the percentage cap, without fully removing included access, will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/claudeai/status/2076351399999557669",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/claudeai/status/2076351399999557669",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 46,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 28320.691923000013,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-48CFED509D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "access",
        "ai-model",
        "anthropic",
        "anthropic fable paid",
        "fable-5"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BZY19RCJ54",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DR0VQ5P2S5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6fe029fd0bd7f6b43a6de39513b396d1d4c37a9d67c13e0a521963533aa392c0",
      "question": "Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "On July 12, 2026, Anthropic announced that it was extending access to Claude Fable 5 on all paid plans through July 19, 2026, ahead of the previously scheduled cutoff after which the model would move to usage-credit-only billing (https://x.com/claudeai/status/2076351399999557669).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic removes access to \"Claude Fable 5\" from qualifying paid plans by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying removal requires Fable 5 to no longer be included within standard usage limits, without requiring usage credits for ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On July 12, 2026, Anthropic announced that it was extending access to Claude Fable 5 on all paid plans through July 19, 2026, ahead of the previously scheduled cutoff after which the model would move to usage-credit-only billing (https://x.com/claudeai/status/2076351399999557669).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic removes access to \"Claude Fable 5\" from qualifying paid plans by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying removal requires Fable 5 to no longer be included within standard usage limits, without requiring usage credits for baseline access, on all of the Pro, Max, or Team plans. Moving Fable 5 to usage-credit-only access on all paid plans will qualify. Removing included access only from some of these plans will not qualify. Access through the Enterprise plan will not be considered.\n\nAnnouncements alone will not qualify. Qualifying paid-plan access must actually be removed by the listed date.\n\nThe percentage cap itself is irrelevant to qualification (higher, lower, unchanged, or removed all count), so long as Fable 5 remains available within the included allowance. Reducing the percentage cap, without fully removing included access, will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/claudeai/status/2076351399999557669",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/claudeai/status/2076351399999557669",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 46,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 104.51,
      "volume_total_usd": 15867.490410999992,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-8330BF4CDC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "access",
        "ai-model",
        "anthropic",
        "anthropic fable paid",
        "fable-5"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HTZB6MCY49",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-20T06:48:42Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-DR0VQ5P2S5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}