{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-1FPKBK9M63",
  "slug": "any-country-withdraws-from-eu-before-2027",
  "question": "Will any country withdraw from the EU before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "eu-membership",
    "political-withdrawal",
    "2026",
    "sovereignty",
    "international-relations"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether any EU member state formally withdraws from the bloc before January 1, 2027. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing official EU and member-state withdrawal notifications. No cross-platform structural comparison applies; only one market exists. The authoritative source is formal notification under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-RYF8B038S8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.032,
    "implied_probability": 0.032
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RYF8B038S8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1FPKBK9M63",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xffb0723660bcaa860192fe58e950e3a54157093c84083180e77893499f405d18",
      "question": "Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reportin",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official announcements from the European Union and EU member states regarding formal notification of withdrawal to the European Council by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the European Union and EU member states",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.032,
      "implied_probability": 0.032,
      "volume_24h_usd": 27.61,
      "volume_total_usd": 158189.63628700018,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "eu",
        "eu member state",
        "geopolitics",
        "membership"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-1FPKBK9M63",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}