{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-GX1DGQF2Q8",
  "slug": "argentina-official-usd-exchange-rate-end-of-2026-higher-brackets",
  "question": "Will Argentina's official USD exchange rate be in a higher bracket by the end of 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "argentina",
    "currency-exchange",
    "forex",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Central Bank of Argentina's official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate at year-end 2026. Six discrete rate-level brackets span below 1600 to 2000-plus, each structured as a binary binary outcome. Collectively they function as a probability distribution over the peso's depreciation path. Polymarket resolves all brackets via its UMA Optimistic Oracle using the final business day close.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-ZC8PNMCLN8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.007,
    "implied_probability": 0.007
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CVXXX0ZHJ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GX1DGQF2Q8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf75e7c7dfc255454a7f3d870753468d80b4ee87d345903db80762cae28a54506",
      "question": "Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1700.00 and 1799.99 at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).\n\nIf the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified mo",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1700.00–1799.99: Central Bank of Argentina official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate at market close on the final business day of December 2026, published on its website.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).\n\nIf the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bcra.gob.ar/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bcra.gob.ar",
            "url": "https://www.bcra.gob.ar/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.bcra.gob.ar/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.067,
      "implied_probability": 0.067,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1588.9611549999993,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 1750,
      "question_id": "CMX-37EB16F3E5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "argentina",
        "currency",
        "fx",
        "usd ars exchange"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZC8PNMCLN8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GX1DGQF2Q8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf64f0c63a95f13006f1feddee78fb1cc09fcd021dce68f5b5190a479be64484b",
      "question": "Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1900.00 and 1999.99 at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).\n\nIf the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified mo",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1900.00–1999.99: Central Bank of Argentina official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate at market close on the final business day of December 2026, published on its website.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).\n\nIf the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bcra.gob.ar/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bcra.gob.ar",
            "url": "https://www.bcra.gob.ar/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.bcra.gob.ar/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.007,
      "implied_probability": 0.007,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 11390.564821000004,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 1950,
      "question_id": "CMX-37EB16F3E5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "argentina",
        "currency",
        "fx",
        "usd ars exchange"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7CHH5NMJ53",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GX1DGQF2Q8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb6e3089d9a6c38959e09c4d381be1966e6b818c7a1bc84de1da38363ea08fd4f",
      "question": "Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be less than 1600.00 at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).\n\nIf the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified mo",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<1600.00: Central Bank of Argentina official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate at market close on the final business day of December 2026, published on its website.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).\n\nIf the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bcra.gob.ar/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bcra.gob.ar",
            "url": "https://www.bcra.gob.ar/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.bcra.gob.ar/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.3,
      "implied_probability": 0.3,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2172.4462659999995,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 1600,
      "question_id": "CMX-5EF2399209",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "argentina",
        "currency",
        "fx",
        "usd ars exchange"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y8998GFW41",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GX1DGQF2Q8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6d08b8be8ba554142cc38bda6193b137299c79bf19f9080b0044ac52f8ae7604",
      "question": "Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1600.00 and 1699.99 at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).\n\nIf the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified mo",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1600.00–1699.99: Central Bank of Argentina official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate at market close on the final business day of December 2026, published on its website.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).\n\nIf the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bcra.gob.ar/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bcra.gob.ar",
            "url": "https://www.bcra.gob.ar/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.bcra.gob.ar/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.45,
      "implied_probability": 0.45,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1666.3515350000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 1650,
      "question_id": "CMX-27F885088D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "argentina",
        "currency",
        "fx",
        "usd ars exchange"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PDRPTVWHZ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GX1DGQF2Q8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x69c936ea72d68d51579f0591f0e47878fbf3f134c70c660ed3f942996d90e4c9",
      "question": "Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1800.00 and 1899.99 at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).\n\nIf the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified mo",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1800.00–1899.99: Central Bank of Argentina official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate at market close on the final business day of December 2026, published on its website.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).\n\nIf the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bcra.gob.ar/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bcra.gob.ar",
            "url": "https://www.bcra.gob.ar/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.bcra.gob.ar/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1132.9667569999995,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 1850,
      "question_id": "CMX-37EB16F3E5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "argentina",
        "currency",
        "fx",
        "usd ars exchange"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-92KVY094N6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GX1DGQF2Q8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe9d2673b8949dde8c7ace819e86d53bc9c3c6098b45423b989c935f699f36b51",
      "question": "Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 2000.00 or higher at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).\n\nIf the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified mo",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "2000.00+: Central Bank of Argentina official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate at market close on the final business day of December 2026, published on its website.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).\n\nIf the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bcra.gob.ar/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bcra.gob.ar",
            "url": "https://www.bcra.gob.ar/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.bcra.gob.ar/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.018,
      "implied_probability": 0.018,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1485.6181019999995,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2000,
      "question_id": "CMX-429A283EAF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "argentina",
        "currency",
        "fx",
        "usd ars exchange"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-GX1DGQF2Q8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}