{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-W3P0CXRTK5",
  "slug": "avgpt-of-ships-transiting-bab-el-mandeb-strait-end-of-july-20260713195907051",
  "question": "Will the average number of ships transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the end of July be above a specified threshold?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "maritime-shipping",
    "middle-east",
    "red-sea",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the 7-day moving average of daily ship transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as of July 31, 2026. IMF Portwatch is the authoritative data source for resolution. All seven markets are single-platform Polymarket bins covering discrete transit ranges from under 25 to 40 or more ships per day. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle protocol applied to the published IMF Portwatch figure on that date.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-1TSDTSZCR5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.17,
    "implied_probability": 0.17
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LRHTXGF3C0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W3P0CXRTK5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc16dd5ad68d9667a680a03ddc208d13976915f540fec387b94ca62f7c97e281a",
      "question": "Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<25: IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average of transit calls for the specified strait on July 31, 2026 determines resolution, with data published within 14 days of that date.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.18,
      "implied_probability": 0.18,
      "volume_24h_usd": 129.98181499999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 2624.3630470000003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 25,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bab el mandeb",
        "maritime",
        "middle east",
        "shipping",
        "strait"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6FQF8NHQY8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W3P0CXRTK5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5ed681f613bd57356530d736a1ef7d8f5eee0cb5ff8f3effe24b4d2d4201971d",
      "question": "Will there be between 25 and 27 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "25-27: IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average of transit calls for the specified strait on July 31, 2026 determines resolution, with data published within 14 days of that date.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.122,
      "implied_probability": 0.122,
      "volume_24h_usd": 16.687825,
      "volume_total_usd": 859.4768110000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bab el mandeb",
        "maritime",
        "middle east",
        "shipping",
        "strait"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-69YY3KVGN3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W3P0CXRTK5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x87aef7d7aef3f4f26da93b4598d7c7ba8e5ec8f6b8a88d32823d7914b8b52e7b",
      "question": "Will there be between 28 and 30 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "28-30: IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average of transit calls for the specified strait on July 31, 2026 determines resolution, with data published within 14 days of that date.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.3,
      "implied_probability": 0.3,
      "volume_24h_usd": 16.933332,
      "volume_total_usd": 791.148332,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bab el mandeb",
        "maritime",
        "middle east",
        "shipping",
        "strait"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4R058G3BS1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W3P0CXRTK5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xff42686e5e7e67fd79d4c411fdb3ab0e0bbe49f1985f1854ca0d663bb8146211",
      "question": "Will there be between 31 and 33 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "31-33: IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average of transit calls for the specified strait on July 31, 2026 determines resolution, with data published within 14 days of that date.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.18,
      "implied_probability": 0.18,
      "volume_24h_usd": 35.125,
      "volume_total_usd": 1593.0622930000006,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bab el mandeb",
        "maritime",
        "middle east",
        "shipping",
        "strait"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-32L4S8NJG9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W3P0CXRTK5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x02ef0212c2f2932e654ebdc97a380f12cd287dd455f0c3291da639ea86e03bc5",
      "question": "Will there be between 34 and 36 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "34-36: IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average of transit calls for the specified strait on July 31, 2026 determines resolution, with data published within 14 days of that date.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.24,
      "implied_probability": 0.24,
      "volume_24h_usd": 8,
      "volume_total_usd": 1085.7436689999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bab el mandeb",
        "maritime",
        "middle east",
        "shipping",
        "strait"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C5VT17VTR9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W3P0CXRTK5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1b056f40cfbf2a0ecdb51c23961d8d798eb887210ce546d6d5f9c3f0cf47c962",
      "question": "Will there be between 37 and 39 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "37-39: IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average of transit calls for the specified strait on July 31, 2026 determines resolution, with data published within 14 days of that date.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 8,
      "volume_total_usd": 1166.806665,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bab el mandeb",
        "maritime",
        "middle east",
        "shipping",
        "strait"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1TSDTSZCR5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W3P0CXRTK5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xce829089afb91c9ca3cbad5aa4d646c4f340188d37cd84734d2a257b6eba64cd",
      "question": "Will there be 40 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "40+: IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average of transit calls for the specified strait on July 31, 2026 determines resolution, with data published within 14 days of that date.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.17,
      "implied_probability": 0.17,
      "volume_24h_usd": 235.51,
      "volume_total_usd": 2749.8488459999994,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 40,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bab el mandeb",
        "maritime",
        "middle east",
        "shipping",
        "strait"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-W3P0CXRTK5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}