{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZNQTJ9ZC0",
  "slug": "avgpt-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-july-20260626153158273",
  "question": "Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "strait-of-hormuz",
    "maritime-shipping",
    "middle-east",
    "energy-security",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the 7-day moving average of daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz as of July 31, 2026. All five markets are Polymarket binary contracts structured as exhaustive, non-overlapping transit-count tiers spanning 0 to 80-plus vessels. Together they function as a discrete probability distribution over the rate level, not a single directional bet. Resolution uses IMF Portwatch data, processed through Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-NQW2Q37T86",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.928,
    "implied_probability": 0.928
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NQW2Q37T86",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZNQTJ9ZC0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xeb1c9b9a77915609b021d6a80d849e70a7a7a3794b8ba6fdb5d6f00f9cc019b5",
      "question": "Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previo",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "0-20: IMF Portwatch's finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz on July 31, 2026 determines the outcome bracket, with ties resolving to the higher range.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.928,
      "implied_probability": 0.928,
      "volume_24h_usd": 6101.8751839999995,
      "volume_total_usd": 95932.70952600011,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "hormuz",
        "maritime",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz average"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XFHVW44614",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZNQTJ9ZC0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1577b32b4beeca98844e2e227b5c23e4c41ece8a6df1ee2d0e3219e9366a9ae4",
      "question": "Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previo",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "20-40: IMF Portwatch's finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz on July 31, 2026 determines the outcome bracket, with ties resolving to the higher range.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.07,
      "implied_probability": 0.07,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2998.32,
      "volume_total_usd": 40116.106255,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 40,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "hormuz",
        "maritime",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz average"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZQB4H2MB68",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZNQTJ9ZC0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7e398184e4f4a4e7e6c202abd2a5d4d4af73df4a36d1bc1b1ba501dd11e5baec",
      "question": "Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previo",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "40-60: IMF Portwatch's finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz on July 31, 2026 determines the outcome bracket, with ties resolving to the higher range.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
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        "source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.025,
      "implied_probability": 0.025,
      "volume_24h_usd": 760.04,
      "volume_total_usd": 53721.31625999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 60,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "hormuz",
        "maritime",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz average"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L0WFV3DF35",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZNQTJ9ZC0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x64c297d4f5ef4e305e95aadaa1d51483c839cb9c12e5da2205c09056c2aa0f80",
      "question": "Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previo",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "60-80: IMF Portwatch's finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz on July 31, 2026 determines the outcome bracket, with ties resolving to the higher range.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
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        "source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.004,
      "implied_probability": 0.004,
      "volume_24h_usd": 760.17,
      "volume_total_usd": 20577.755745999995,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 80,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "maritime",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz average"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZNQTJ9ZC0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3783c40d841a0b7bd56b9532de5d454898790135750350c1a926b8f348dff49c",
      "question": "Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previo",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "80+: IMF Portwatch's finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz on July 31, 2026 determines the outcome bracket, with ties resolving to the higher range.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "volume_24h_usd": 760.17,
      "volume_total_usd": 20047.742580000006,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 80,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "hormuz",
        "maritime",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz average"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-KZNQTJ9ZC0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}