{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-H2J3885PH3",
  "slug": "az-01-republican-primary-margin-of-victory-20260708152700439",
  "question": "Will the AZ-01 Republican Primary margin of victory be determined by 2026-08-04?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "arizona-politics",
    "republican-primary",
    "2026-election",
    "margin-of-victory"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the margin of victory in the AZ-01 Republican primary runoff on August 4, 2026. Polymarket prices margin of victory in discrete percentage tiers, splitting coverage between Jay Feely and Joseph Chaplik as potential winners. All ten markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the Arizona Secretary of State's official canvass. The \"other outcome\" contract captures edge cases such as a tie or a third-candidate result.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-PGZKJRJ7Z4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.001
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PRQB7DWJY7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H2J3885PH3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbde5a4713cf5f5c75642ceb4686f8a3387b60dfda5236937eb266d9a433a57ea",
      "question": "Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by at least 25%?",
      "description": "The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Feely 25%+: Arizona Secretary of State's official canvass of valid votes cast in the AZ-01 Republican primary runoff on August 4, 2026, determines the margin between top two finishers.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://azsos.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "azsos.gov",
            "url": "https://azsos.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "State of Arizona",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Arizona Secretary of State",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": "Arizona Secretary of State",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.016,
      "implied_probability": 0.016,
      "volume_24h_usd": 137.792,
      "volume_total_usd": 1048.754767,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 25,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "jay feely margin",
        "republican primary"
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F6T5RJ6S19",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H2J3885PH3",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x4618f72f5dbe010ef9f9445f8bec995b7d1eb866b48d114b4a1756fb2fd25f00",
      "question": "Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 20–25%?",
      "description": "The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Feely 20–25%: Arizona Secretary of State's official canvass of valid votes cast in the AZ-01 Republican primary runoff on August 4, 2026, determines the margin between top two finishers.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://azsos.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
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            "url": "https://azsos.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "State of Arizona",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "Arizona Secretary of State",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.104,
      "implied_probability": 0.104,
      "volume_24h_usd": 524.985,
      "volume_total_usd": 4092.5903690000005,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "arizona",
        "az-01",
        "jay feely",
        "jay feely margin",
        "republican primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PGZKJRJ7Z4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H2J3885PH3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x698cef36f10044e78eef732f325a559d87329d64ae2d9acebe7630fa58ce3f57",
      "question": "Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 15–20%?",
      "description": "The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Feely 15–20%: Arizona Secretary of State's official canvass of valid votes cast in the AZ-01 Republican primary runoff on August 4, 2026, determines the margin between top two finishers.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://azsos.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "azsos.gov",
            "url": "https://azsos.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "State of Arizona",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Arizona Secretary of State",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": "Arizona Secretary of State",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1483.55426,
      "volume_total_usd": 7390.0878809999995,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 15,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "arizona",
        "az-01",
        "jay feely",
        "jay feely margin",
        "republican primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0SHZB115Z6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H2J3885PH3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x28cbf49a383112df7c6f0e0ed38ae4eddc3f12c3791476eca9cd9a0b1388ef44",
      "question": "Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 10–15%?",
      "description": "The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Feely 10–15%: Arizona Secretary of State's official canvass of valid votes cast in the AZ-01 Republican primary runoff on August 4, 2026, determines the margin between top two finishers.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://azsos.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "azsos.gov",
            "url": "https://azsos.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "State of Arizona",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Arizona Secretary of State",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Arizona Secretary of State",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.96,
      "implied_probability": 0.96,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1677.33557,
      "volume_total_usd": 4175.230818,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "arizona",
        "az-01",
        "jay feely",
        "jay feely margin",
        "republican primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QFJ6JPT4Q5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H2J3885PH3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x94dce2c2dc05a9ca4a5bc7fb70e53f39130c23edd0330de9c102ea1ff0978d2a",
      "question": "Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 5–10%?",
      "description": "The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Feely 5–10%: Arizona Secretary of State's official canvass of valid votes cast in the AZ-01 Republican primary runoff on August 4, 2026, determines the margin between top two finishers.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://azsos.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "azsos.gov",
            "url": "https://azsos.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "State of Arizona",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Arizona Secretary of State",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Arizona Secretary of State",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.008,
      "implied_probability": 0.008,
      "volume_24h_usd": 153.1,
      "volume_total_usd": 1890.0093960000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "arizona",
        "az-01",
        "jay feely",
        "jay feely margin",
        "republican primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R2R3W417T5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H2J3885PH3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x56c7440933dd5ac3641d28f32789f0703651f99f2f3b03f46254867a2c1ff666",
      "question": "Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by less than 5%?",
      "description": "The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Feely <5%: Arizona Secretary of State's official canvass of valid votes cast in the AZ-01 Republican primary runoff on August 4, 2026, determines the margin between top two finishers.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://azsos.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "azsos.gov",
            "url": "https://azsos.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
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