{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-W64JMGM6Q3",
  "slug": "az-01-republican-primary-winner",
  "question": "Will the AZ-01 Republican primary have a winner determined?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "arizona",
    "republican-primary",
    "2026",
    "us-house"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Republican primary outcome for Arizona's 1st congressional district, resolving August 4, 2026. Each Polymarket contract prices one named candidate's nomination probability as a binary outcome. Collectively, the contracts span the full field; probabilities should sum near 100%. Resolution follows Republican National Committee official announcements, verified through Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-7SXYSFLK99",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.002,
    "implied_probability": 0.002
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B5X7XDKV69",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W64JMGM6Q3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf6fabbbe9b2782f60c35ace5cc0b5d6cdc1c52c71453dde1a5a81147c06d1fda",
      "question": "Will Matt Gress be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Republican National Committee official announcements regarding the nominee for Arizona's 1st congressional district after the August 4, 2026 primary election.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.rnc.org/",
        "sources": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 49813.638001999985,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BF4BHT95Z1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W64JMGM6Q3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7fcf21912df2c1f851f2c4db16266209fcc8d2b6dddaf1f63daa92eb5595fa8c",
      "question": "Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Republican National Committee official announcements regarding the nominee for Arizona's 1st congressional district after the August 4, 2026 primary election.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.rnc.org/",
        "sources": null,
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0.001,
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      "question": "Will Todd Graham be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Republican National Committee official announcements regarding the nominee for Arizona's 1st congressional district after the August 4, 2026 primary election.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.rnc.org/",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 8592.107972,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RSLHC8Z7H1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W64JMGM6Q3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x61e6c828abcad1240db85dcf25456f085f6cba5f7c82f1e18732a353ae0a529e",
      "question": "Will Kari Lake be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Republican National Committee official announcements regarding the nominee for Arizona's 1st congressional district after the August 4, 2026 primary election.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.rnc.org/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 8024.704924999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1GQ7ZQJQ04",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W64JMGM6Q3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb580aaab3ba42321177746aeb97a638108bac7d4070ae069e8dd0d8f3a44136a",
      "question": "Will Derrick Gallego be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Republican National Committee official announcements regarding the nominee for Arizona's 1st congressional district after the August 4, 2026 primary election.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.rnc.org/",
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7SXYSFLK99",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W64JMGM6Q3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa04457f32a2b1f94f9fc8f2b15cc663e90239940b07876cf62b77864779a5bbd",
      "question": "Will Paul Reevs be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Republican National Committee official announcements regarding the nominee for Arizona's 1st congressional district after the August 4, 2026 primary election.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.rnc.org/",
        "sources": null,
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        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RGYDZKF738",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W64JMGM6Q3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3eb36575921368d668de054dce113f4237d222ccbff11516e21a257e19b82bce",
      "question": "Will John Trobough be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Republican National Committee official announcements regarding the nominee for Arizona's 1st congressional district after the August 4, 2026 primary election.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.rnc.org/",
        "sources": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
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      "volume_total_usd": 4490.091115999999,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R16DCG16P5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W64JMGM6Q3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd8cb370f66378e643a5103179e0e5de54e4fb3c09254563a3fca898cba2736e8",
      "question": "Will Gina Swoboda be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Republican National Committee official announcements regarding the nominee for Arizona's 1st congressional district after the August 4, 2026 primary election.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.rnc.org/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5955.222891999996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CZZTSKRMT4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W64JMGM6Q3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
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