{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-K5R3GLSMF6",
  "slug": "bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by",
  "question": "Will the Bab el-Mandeb Strait be effectively closed in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "middle-east",
    "maritime-chokepoint",
    "yemen-houthis",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the Bab el-Mandeb Strait reaches effective closure by sequential deadlines through September 2026. Closure is defined as IMF PortWatch recording a 7-day moving average of transit calls at or below 10. The markets are structured as a term strip: each successive contract prices the probability of closure by a later date. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle referencing IMF PortWatch data as the authoritative source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-42S0ZB68W1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RD7NKC91N0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K5R3GLSMF6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2d7ff3eaa920d560debfac34e360670462e1e5ab35f653c9da992b45a854058b",
      "question": "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31: IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the referenced strait at or below 10 by May 5, 2026, or market resolves \"No\" if no such value appears within 14 days thereafter.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c\n, including both the chart and downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 330325.4789079996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bab el mandeb",
        "geopolitics",
        "middle-east",
        "shipping",
        "strait"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-42S0ZB68W1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K5R3GLSMF6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcd26bdb63b81dfcc5482c42e9372c8a46091b1de1123d2afefb83df83fe859fd",
      "question": "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "April 30: IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the referenced strait at or below 10 by May 5, 2026, or market resolves \"No\" if no such value appears within 14 days thereafter.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c\n, including both the chart and downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1651616.9613379955,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bab el mandeb",
        "geopolitics",
        "middle-east",
        "shipping",
        "strait"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-847MLBR1Q2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K5R3GLSMF6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9647b0f18083245933f2d2ca09acbe7ce89ee60ba83ed01e984df4bc7888a214",
      "question": "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "May 31: IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the referenced strait at or below 10 by May 5, 2026, or market resolves \"No\" if no such value appears within 14 days thereafter.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1339221.415588001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bab el mandeb",
        "geopolitics",
        "middle-east",
        "shipping",
        "strait"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CP2XT3Y975",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K5R3GLSMF6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa976dcc2fac50cf13968adbee89ce1de26df0191b8480b89d418280273197f53",
      "question": "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the referenced strait at or below 10 by May 5, 2026, or market resolves \"No\" if no such value appears within 14 days thereafter.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 92076.649578,
      "volume_total_usd": 841937.0723290015,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bab el mandeb",
        "geopolitics",
        "middle-east",
        "shipping",
        "strait"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LYQN43VC58",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K5R3GLSMF6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x95fc6a4ed7f6856d26aa7f21b9f902d05c9cf76b616fd3463de4d147f7a9126b",
      "question": "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the referenced strait at or below 10 by May 5, 2026, or market resolves \"No\" if no such value appears within 14 days thereafter.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": 48694.466760999996,
      "volume_total_usd": 1641201.8735450003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bab el mandeb",
        "geopolitics",
        "middle-east",
        "shipping",
        "strait"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C422H20KT8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K5R3GLSMF6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9b6f9eb121e43f6867a0855acae1354c569ce8ba32fbc48422d4dec9210161ae",
      "question": "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 15: IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the referenced strait at or below 10 by May 5, 2026, or market resolves \"No\" if no such value appears within 14 days thereafter.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-15T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-15T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 36472.356340000006,
      "volume_total_usd": 110675.24712799996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bab el mandeb",
        "geopolitics",
        "middle-east",
        "shipping",
        "strait"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DX213T3352",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K5R3GLSMF6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcd22707a80bba2d2ce0622e9a3605d82b766285b50ef20745a1d4bb7435cbd27",
      "question": "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 22: IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the referenced strait at or below 10 by May 5, 2026, or market resolves \"No\" if no such value appears within 14 days thereafter.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-22T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-22T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      },
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        "grade": "A",
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 27364.864259,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bab el mandeb",
        "geopolitics",
        "middle-east",
        "shipping",
        "strait"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CP2XT3Y975",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-08T00:04:56Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-24",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DX213T3352",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-02T12:30:11Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C422H20KT8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-23T15:27:46Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-847MLBR1Q2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-02T18:33:58Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-42S0ZB68W1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-05T16:50:08Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RD7NKC91N0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-07T16:09:05Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-K5R3GLSMF6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}