{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-2N3S8TH3D2",
  "slug": "bank-of-canada-decision-in-june",
  "question": "Will the Bank of Canada make a decision in June?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "bank-of-canada",
    "monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "economy",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Bank of Canada's June 2026 overnight rate decision across four discrete outcome buckets: 50+ bps cut, 25 bps cut, no change, and hike. All four are structured as binary contracts on Polymarket, collectively exhausting the decision space. Together they imply a probability distribution over the target rate outcome. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle referencing the Bank of Canada's official policy announcement.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-7140MWC234",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FH1MWYD6T7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2N3S8TH3D2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8c2beab0e154c578ef23dfba88d8648dba30d292cb96988ad4e33bacad4b2e15",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information release",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Bank of Canada's official announcement of the target overnight rate decision at its June 2026 monetary policy meeting.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 191.382,
      "volume_total_usd": 10501.492921999998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 50,
      "question_id": "CMX-ACB46B4354",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank canada policy",
        "boc",
        "interest-rates",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4QWM1WH319",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2N3S8TH3D2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfb58cedd4b17f09429e0ad84f4824244ff9e6678481d02d740a2fd77c3b1db16",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information release",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Bank of Canada's official announcement of the target overnight rate decision at its June 2026 monetary policy meeting.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 11,
      "volume_total_usd": 9831.902649,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 25,
      "question_id": "CMX-3ADB960FCC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "boc",
        "interest-rates",
        "monetary-policy"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7140MWC234",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2N3S8TH3D2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xaa5aa8844cdcb27f9224d55472a4017788d54e36080250c7b6c63d537fb3d6de",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information release",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Bank of Canada's official announcement of the target overnight rate decision at its June 2026 monetary policy meeting.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "uncommitted_illustrative"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 287.748205,
      "volume_total_usd": 17791.93519900002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-092BB3BD8A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank canada policy",
        "boc",
        "interest-rates",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TWG9TCMTP6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2N3S8TH3D2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x146cdf818590e91110ab0ec950b367020625c792ce1953f12bb5e7c439643797",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information release",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Bank of Canada's official announcement of the target overnight rate decision at its June 2026 monetary policy meeting.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates",
        "sources": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 434.15,
      "volume_total_usd": 15656.261244999996,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-F4466CC03E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank canada policy",
        "boc",
        "interest-rates",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [
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      "platform": "polymarket",
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      "resolved_at": "2026-06-10T00:00:00Z",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TWG9TCMTP6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-10T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-2N3S8TH3D2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}