{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZKTMN7F9Q2",
  "slug": "bank-of-canada-decision-in-september-20260701223913897",
  "question": "Will the Bank of Canada make a decision in September?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "central-banking",
    "canada",
    "monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Bank of Canada's overnight rate target decision on September 2, 2026. Five binary contracts span the full outcome distribution: cuts of 50+ bps or 25 bps, no change, and hikes of 25 bps or 50+ bps. Together they form an exhaustive, mutually exclusive probability distribution over all plausible policy outcomes. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle referencing the Bank of Canada's official September 2, 2026 announcement statement.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-BBWHP1LSS0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.96,
    "implied_probability": 0.96
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-22B1C5F0L2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZKTMN7F9Q2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd439b38a86181ff7e8adef8451613e3954c996f1c53402395054254ced0c0d44",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the September interest rate announcement?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "50+ bps increase: Bank of Canada's official September 2, 2026 interest rate announcement statement determines the basis point change in the overnight rate target from the prior level.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. \n\nIf the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. \n\nIf the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.\n\nIf the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement.  If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bankofcanada.ca",
            "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from the Bank of Canada",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official Bank of Canada calendar",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bank of Canada",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.011,
      "implied_probability": 0.011,
      "volume_24h_usd": 53.49,
      "volume_total_usd": 2363.5848000000005,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 50,
      "question_id": "CMX-D9CBB1F167",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank canada overnight",
        "boc",
        "interest-rates",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7G2T1V5HG9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZKTMN7F9Q2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2f559f3f2bdee3d2a55cfb4dab7232f877d4a38e3177a0165abed744fc5b8917",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "25 bps increase: Bank of Canada's official September 2, 2026 interest rate announcement statement determines the basis point change in the overnight rate target from the prior level.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. \n\nIf the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. \n\nIf the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.\n\nIf the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement.  If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bankofcanada.ca",
            "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from the Bank of Canada",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official Bank of Canada calendar",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bank of Canada",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.008,
      "implied_probability": 0.008,
      "volume_24h_usd": 204.595238,
      "volume_total_usd": 6640.877897,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 25,
      "question_id": "CMX-D84074AFC9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank canada overnight",
        "boc",
        "interest-rates",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BBWHP1LSS0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZKTMN7F9Q2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa6576a9c0bd138d974c2ce13bd03a543055c0437670384f1bc63f071d5d1acc9",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the September interest rate announcement?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No Change: Bank of Canada's official September 2, 2026 interest rate announcement statement determines the basis point change in the overnight rate target from the prior level.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. \n\nIf the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. \n\nIf the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.\n\nIf the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement.  If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bankofcanada.ca",
            "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from the Bank of Canada",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official Bank of Canada calendar",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bank of Canada",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.96,
      "implied_probability": 0.96,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10100.787975,
      "volume_total_usd": 27938.658732,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-1BC29FA10A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank canada overnight",
        "boc",
        "interest-rates",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VVQ4NHP3Q9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZKTMN7F9Q2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x40509348b314633ec2ca80c936df69e66efb1288458fb8402a35680163bf010c",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "25 bps decrease: Bank of Canada's official September 2, 2026 interest rate announcement statement determines the basis point change in the overnight rate target from the prior level.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. \n\nIf the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. \n\nIf the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.\n\nIf the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement.  If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "bankofcanada.ca",
            "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from the Bank of Canada",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official Bank of Canada calendar",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bank of Canada",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.024,
      "implied_probability": 0.024,
      "volume_24h_usd": 53.5,
      "volume_total_usd": 2976.8456480000004,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": -25,
      "question_id": "CMX-FF34BA4C31",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank canada overnight",
        "boc",
        "interest-rates",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0J08GK9SK5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZKTMN7F9Q2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa3330a94c65076237d14603a36438d9fc44973ecf3d0b8d8756545f60377fa08",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the September interest rate announcement?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "50+ bps decrease: Bank of Canada's official September 2, 2026 interest rate announcement statement determines the basis point change in the overnight rate target from the prior level.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. \n\nIf the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. \n\nIf the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.\n\nIf the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement.  If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bankofcanada.ca",
            "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from the Bank of Canada",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official Bank of Canada calendar",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bank of Canada",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.004,
      "implied_probability": 0.004,
      "volume_24h_usd": 53.49,
      "volume_total_usd": 2302.9323,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": -50,
      "question_id": "CMX-E2CC0BFE93",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank canada overnight",
        "boc",
        "interest-rates",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-ZKTMN7F9Q2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}