{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-74MTKS2H03",
  "slug": "bank-of-japan-decision-in-october-20260731151537",
  "question": "Will the Bank of Japan make a decision in October?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "economic-policy",
    "central-banking",
    "interest-rates",
    "japan"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Bank of Japan's policy rate decision at its October 30, 2026 meeting. Five mutually exclusive Polymarket contracts span the full decision tree: 50+ bps cut, 25 bps cut, hold, 25 bps hike, and 50+ bps hike. All five resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the Bank of Japan's Statement on Monetary Policy released October 30, 2026. Only one contract can settle at 1.00; together they sum to unity across the rate-change distribution.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-8CKLG9F8T3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.68,
    "implied_probability": 0.68
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WJKGSGZ4M5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-74MTKS2H03",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8fc2e3463d544097941c976656e209fc58e8a76a07fb68d8b9c348ae1b004940",
      "question": "Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if th",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "50+ bps decrease: The Bank of Japan's Statement on Monetary Policy released October 30, 2026 determines the basis point change to the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate; changes not matching displayed options round up to the nearest 25 basis points.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "boj.or.jp",
            "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official website of the Bank of Japan",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bank of Japan",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.005,
      "implied_probability": 0.005,
      "volume_24h_usd": 394.29,
      "volume_total_usd": 827.3,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": -50,
      "question_id": "CMX-5560FE6792",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank japan interest",
        "boj",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WXVR1S7GR3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-74MTKS2H03",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcad869d7e4e1c6b0a45452998fdc99dd571ebf6c776802b3663e24debd1864a0",
      "question": "Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if th",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "25 bps decrease: The Bank of Japan's Statement on Monetary Policy released October 30, 2026 determines the basis point change to the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate; changes not matching displayed options round up to the nearest 25 basis points.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "boj.or.jp",
            "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official website of the Bank of Japan",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bank of Japan",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.009,
      "implied_probability": 0.009,
      "volume_24h_usd": 384.29,
      "volume_total_usd": 817.3,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": -25,
      "question_id": "CMX-28341E0484",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank japan interest",
        "boj",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TSW4FCK382",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-74MTKS2H03",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x35597e4e103ac82e2fa2e545c1d3166d3ab46d330b6ebb848cbf5da37dea23dd",
      "question": "No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if th",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No change: The Bank of Japan's Statement on Monetary Policy released October 30, 2026 determines the basis point change to the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate; changes not matching displayed options round up to the nearest 25 basis points.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "boj.or.jp",
            "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official website of the Bank of Japan",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bank of Japan",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.31,
      "implied_probability": 0.31,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1492.371817,
      "volume_total_usd": 5197.9822,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-B7CB41FEBC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank japan interest",
        "boj",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8CKLG9F8T3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-74MTKS2H03",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfbc4707e4c25e46f4390703aa726a7c77f2a9c3deee463d6e982fa612a3f86e8",
      "question": "Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if th",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "25 bps increase: The Bank of Japan's Statement on Monetary Policy released October 30, 2026 determines the basis point change to the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate; changes not matching displayed options round up to the nearest 25 basis points.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm",
        "sources": [
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "official website of the Bank of Japan",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bank of Japan",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.68,
      "implied_probability": 0.68,
      "volume_24h_usd": 807.25,
      "volume_total_usd": 5515.755092,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 25,
      "question_id": "CMX-0364F02FE0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank japan interest",
        "boj",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2PCM0CP139",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-74MTKS2H03",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe7bac65e95d998e489309619a6093d82082a33f766acd5eb55fd3179e43d2145",
      "question": "Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if th",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "50+ bps increase: The Bank of Japan's Statement on Monetary Policy released October 30, 2026 determines the basis point change to the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate; changes not matching displayed options round up to the nearest 25 basis points.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "boj.or.jp",
            "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official website of the Bank of Japan",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bank of Japan",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.004,
      "implied_probability": 0.004,
      "volume_24h_usd": 385.99,
      "volume_total_usd": 819,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 50,
      "question_id": "CMX-78F433A488",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank japan interest",
        "boj",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-74MTKS2H03",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}