{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-D2NXWYX6Y1",
  "slug": "bank-of-japan-decision-in-september-20260616002734979",
  "question": "Will the Bank of Japan make a decision in September?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "economic-policy",
    "monetary-policy",
    "japan",
    "central-banking"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Bank of Japan's policy rate decision at its September 17-18, 2026 meeting. Five Polymarket binary contracts span the full outcome distribution: 50+ bps cut, 25 bps cut, hold, 25 bps hike, and 50+ bps hike. Each resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the Bank of Japan's official post-meeting statement. Together the contracts form an implied probability distribution across all discrete rate-change outcomes.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-XFTH0TP0Y6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.55,
    "implied_probability": 0.55
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CBF4LKDCW3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D2NXWYX6Y1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1f51d6e06ba09e2c46ba74f900b2edfd368fb1af12377650f5c06fdbb0be97bb",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Septem",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "50+ bps decrease: Bank of Japan's official statement from its September 17-18, 2026 meeting determines the basis point change in the uncollateralized overnight call rate relative to the prior level.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-18T15:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-18T15:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.\n\nIf the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.\n\nIf the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.\n\nIf the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "boj.or.jp",
            "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from the Bank of Japan",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the official Bank of Japan calendar",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bank of Japan",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": 575,
      "volume_total_usd": 6568.993926000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": -50,
      "question_id": "CMX-11551E3485",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank japan policy",
        "boj",
        "japan",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F7YRC4CZX6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D2NXWYX6Y1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4dbe315b8f966874291965f941a94b8b84ef44415be0f92eb8abbfcc595c8c6f",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Septem",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "25 bps decrease: Bank of Japan's official statement from its September 17-18, 2026 meeting determines the basis point change in the uncollateralized overnight call rate relative to the prior level.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-18T15:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-18T15:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.\n\nIf the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.\n\nIf the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.\n\nIf the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "boj.or.jp",
            "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from the Bank of Japan",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the official Bank of Japan calendar",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bank of Japan",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": 711,
      "volume_total_usd": 4795.271262,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": -25,
      "question_id": "CMX-FE62B3B6B7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank japan policy",
        "boj",
        "japan",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XFTH0TP0Y6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D2NXWYX6Y1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb64e4e073ef1242216ceeb1971e4fc5bc9094532558e89014b240992baac0c35",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Septem",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No change: Bank of Japan's official statement from its September 17-18, 2026 meeting determines the basis point change in the uncollateralized overnight call rate relative to the prior level.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-18T15:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-18T15:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.\n\nIf the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.\n\nIf the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.\n\nIf the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "boj.or.jp",
            "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from the Bank of Japan",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the official Bank of Japan calendar",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bank of Japan",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.55,
      "implied_probability": 0.55,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4434.659306,
      "volume_total_usd": 37423.00696199999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-BF9CFB82A3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank japan policy",
        "boj",
        "japan",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F3VJ5QTMG3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D2NXWYX6Y1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x424a35de2ed7150339423462d110256fd1a40b6a5f07c0002433bc89201798d7",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Septem",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "25 bps increase: Bank of Japan's official statement from its September 17-18, 2026 meeting determines the basis point change in the uncollateralized overnight call rate relative to the prior level.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-18T15:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-18T15:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.\n\nIf the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.\n\nIf the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.\n\nIf the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "boj.or.jp",
            "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from the Bank of Japan",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the official Bank of Japan calendar",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bank of Japan",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.39,
      "implied_probability": 0.39,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2479.2615729999993,
      "volume_total_usd": 24330.443041,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 25,
      "question_id": "CMX-01EF4ACD34",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank japan policy",
        "boj",
        "japan",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-619B44QGP1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D2NXWYX6Y1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xaa49a7412f36c5902e19bbee7570abd3ccc7b51d72c76c0f8526d9a1876d74eb",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Septem",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "50+ bps increase: Bank of Japan's official statement from its September 17-18, 2026 meeting determines the basis point change in the uncollateralized overnight call rate relative to the prior level.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-18T15:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-18T15:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.\n\nIf the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.\n\nIf the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.\n\nIf the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "boj.or.jp",
            "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from the Bank of Japan",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the official Bank of Japan calendar",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bank of Japan",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.021,
      "implied_probability": 0.021,
      "volume_24h_usd": 434.995,
      "volume_total_usd": 6328.671203999998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 50,
      "question_id": "CMX-10906D8AD7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank japan policy",
        "boj",
        "japan",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-D2NXWYX6Y1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}