{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZGLLV3GJW6",
  "slug": "bank-of-russia-decision-in-july",
  "question": "Will the Bank of Russia make a decision in July?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "central-banking",
    "monetary-policy",
    "russia",
    "interest-rates",
    "economy"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Bank of Russia's key rate decision at its July 24, 2026 monetary policy meeting. Three binary Polymarket contracts cover the full directional outcome space: decrease, no change, and increase. All three resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the Bank of Russia's official post-meeting press release. The three probabilities must sum to one, making cross-contract pricing a useful consistency check.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KJCX2Q3NH4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.002,
    "implied_probability": 0.002
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0JMF0520Y4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZGLLV3GJW6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7e8794e4ff149da85bbb5e4609d79466fc68d4a84bb54aea2727caa496aa8406",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s July meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its July 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their July 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Decrease: Bank of Russia's official press release following its July 24, 2026 monetary policy meeting determines whether the key rate increased relative to the prior meeting level.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s July meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its July 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their July 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "cbr.ru",
            "url": "https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bank of Russia",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bank of Russia",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": 42685.42414399999,
      "volume_total_usd": 152013.83249099972,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-4885E01C76",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank russia key",
        "central bank",
        "monetary policy",
        "russia"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RWPTC09HY0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZGLLV3GJW6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2d5c8e9a38609661a11de7532c7049cb44a99b347cb1e81a3d7b8b418df386a4",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s July meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its July 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their July 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No Change: Bank of Russia's official press release following its July 24, 2026 monetary policy meeting determines whether the key rate increased relative to the prior meeting level.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s July meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its July 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their July 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "cbr.ru",
            "url": "https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Bank of Russia",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bank of Russia",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 22734.42815799999,
      "volume_total_usd": 109361.59517999968,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-8C203FDC50",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank russia key",
        "central bank",
        "monetary policy",
        "russia"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KJCX2Q3NH4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZGLLV3GJW6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8698f69b12ddb5f251251abf7b7973c6578a6d2b69f35bb5c35cbe1a245afe79",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s July meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its July 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their July 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Increase: Bank of Russia's official press release following its July 24, 2026 monetary policy meeting determines whether the key rate increased relative to the prior meeting level.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s July meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its July 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their July 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "cbr.ru",
            "url": "https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bank of Russia",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bank of Russia",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": 36026.124883000004,
      "volume_total_usd": 217698.9823309999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-C105A3F348",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank russia key",
        "central bank",
        "monetary policy",
        "russia"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-ZGLLV3GJW6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}