{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-STB1T1L0L2",
  "slug": "bank-of-russia-decision-in-september-20260623013858993",
  "question": "Will the Bank of Russia make a decision in September?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "finance",
    "central-banking",
    "interest-rates",
    "russia"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Bank of Russia's key rate decision at its September 11, 2026 meeting. All three contracts are on Polymarket and collectively span the full outcome space: decrease, no change, or increase. The structural insight is that Polymarket prices direction only, not the rate level, leaving magnitude of any move unpriced. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, sourced against the Bank of Russia's official post-meeting announcement.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-CNDDXLKZ42",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.52,
    "implied_probability": 0.52
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VRXY3DF891",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-STB1T1L0L2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x918fb0abb506dd05c2d96eb01f713cd2aa4cbba3e38f945473c697740234cc85",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s September meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its September 11, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their September 11, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Decrease: Bank of Russia's official announcement of the key rate decision from its September 11, 2026 meeting, published on the central bank's monetary policy calendar.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-11T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-11T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s September meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its September 11, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their September 11, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "cbr.ru",
            "url": "https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bank of Russia",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bank of Russia",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.33,
      "implied_probability": 0.33,
      "volume_24h_usd": 13.030301999999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 7302.065809,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-0C5D71B619",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank russia key",
        "cbr",
        "monetary-policy",
        "russia"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CNDDXLKZ42",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-STB1T1L0L2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1883b6810fb3e723165ee9c61a88f8803b5d6ffd2bf48d1a9ee391d3c13bfa2a",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s September meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its September 11, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their September 11, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No Change: Bank of Russia's official announcement of the key rate decision from its September 11, 2026 meeting, published on the central bank's monetary policy calendar.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-11T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-11T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s September meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its September 11, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their September 11, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "cbr.ru",
            "url": "https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bank of Russia",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bank of Russia",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.52,
      "implied_probability": 0.52,
      "volume_24h_usd": 131.120302,
      "volume_total_usd": 10556.849355,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E5A3C2E496",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank russia key",
        "cbr",
        "monetary-policy",
        "russia"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W17MJ985B2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-STB1T1L0L2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x73f366e7059368afe743a6d9d34163efa4c8b471c2d039073c27d4fdbe3bf487",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s September meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its September 11, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their September 11, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Increase: Bank of Russia's official announcement of the key rate decision from its September 11, 2026 meeting, published on the central bank's monetary policy calendar.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-11T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-11T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s September meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its September 11, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their September 11, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "cbr.ru",
            "url": "https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bank of Russia",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bank of Russia",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.243,
      "implied_probability": 0.243,
      "volume_24h_usd": 22.99025,
      "volume_total_usd": 7931.672119000001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-8E742798A7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank russia key",
        "cbr",
        "monetary-policy",
        "russia"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-STB1T1L0L2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}