{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-WDD1X55X97",
  "slug": "base-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch",
  "question": "Base FDV one day after launch",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      3000000000,
      4000000000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 500000000,
        "prob": 58
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1000000000,
        "prob": 59
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2000000000,
        "prob": 55
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3000000000,
        "prob": 59
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4000000000,
        "prob": 40
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5000000000,
        "prob": 36
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6000000000,
        "prob": 31
      },
      {
        "threshold": 8000000000,
        "prob": 29
      },
      {
        "threshold": 10000000000,
        "prob": 26
      },
      {
        "threshold": 12000000000,
        "prob": 17
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "fdv-valuation",
    "launch-metrics",
    "base-protocol",
    "2028"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the fully diluted valuation of the Base token one day after its launch. Ten binary strikes span $500M to $12B, forming an implied probability curve across FDV levels. Each market resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid market source. The strike ladder structure prices magnitude, not direction, giving traders a continuous read on launch valuation expectations.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-FSZ8N1RNK6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.34,
    "implied_probability": 0.34,
    "as_of": "2026-09-06T05:00:35.185Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LWXXX8XMQ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WDD1X55X97",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa7374fa153b1e9c7140c8f4d106645e4f508f7fcb5547b55e896b9d555dafe74",
      "question": "Base FDV above $500M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 202",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$500M: The token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid market source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, resolves by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.58,
      "implied_probability": 0.58,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T05:00:35.185Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 22.38,
      "volume_total_usd": 39258.113198,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 500000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-0C07AC4D6A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "base",
        "fdv",
        "token-launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C1ZPPLCJB9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WDD1X55X97",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe0f1c4a9b85c5f153260ef474245d888bfc264fdbd8b20cb2c2c5fba538f5bc4",
      "question": "Base FDV above $1B one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 202",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$1B: The token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid market source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, resolves by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.52,
      "implied_probability": 0.52,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-05T23:01:09.328Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 6839.921647,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-607B10B25F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "base",
        "fdv",
        "token-launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9BBGV9BHN3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WDD1X55X97",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe11fcbba4f4fb8e986dd010af0304f1123a62e426edb153312a3b7e49720c0a2",
      "question": "Base FDV above $3B one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 202",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$3B: The token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid market source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, resolves by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.35,
      "implied_probability": 0.35,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-24T08:00:35.184Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 453.271478,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-4DF40B46E3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "base",
        "fdv",
        "token-launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3Q8L32YLY2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WDD1X55X97",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2a0b371e8dd7d55bb21f978d22c840bf4da6734ad46a2b73aebd039a44a661ef",
      "question": "Base FDV above $5B one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 202",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$5B: The token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid market source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, resolves by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.32,
      "implied_probability": 0.32,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T05:00:35.185Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 61.879999999999995,
      "volume_total_usd": 6780.419453,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-30E237F94B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "base",
        "fdv",
        "token-launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-95VBKW49D9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WDD1X55X97",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd73dc42697ca2769470ad374ac1a87eaa6b527759be5dc3d7a81d6cc73ae6cad",
      "question": "Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 202",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$2B: The token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid market source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, resolves by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.41,
      "implied_probability": 0.41,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 30.55,
      "volume_total_usd": 263035.73657400004,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-8FDB7E7620",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "base",
        "fdv",
        "token-launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FSZ8N1RNK6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WDD1X55X97",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5c18bf0b735c72c812df0f41b596058da7ac14d6eb1aff5482295b5ec10ecfff",
      "question": "Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 202",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$4B: The token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid market source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, resolves by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.34,
      "implied_probability": 0.34,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T05:00:35.185Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 38.15,
      "volume_total_usd": 79373.84802799998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-013918A7F2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "base",
        "fdv",
        "token-launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NVCX1NFHN4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WDD1X55X97",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x74cc8e0f432f7e4ab1fc0b181b011e1f201c31cfa2a31c2ce8a44227717c57be",
      "question": "Base FDV above $6B one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 202",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$6B: The token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid market source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, resolves by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.3,
      "implied_probability": 0.3,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 29.59,
      "volume_total_usd": 130037.408229,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-F5D7786089",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "base",
        "fdv",
        "token-launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G4Q2YWQP23",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WDD1X55X97",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9b8e9190efbd5d1123ee22350dc1a65911570542a26619ab73200415d1b891fe",
      "question": "Base FDV above $8B one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 202",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$8B: The token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid market source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, resolves by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.28,
      "implied_probability": 0.28,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-05T20:01:21.568Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 74189.730154,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 8000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-C95E1B995E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "base",
        "fdv",
        "token-launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SNSC21CNT8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WDD1X55X97",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x888a55163fff73cb438f021364480062ed29f4b1b7aae712548bdcdc978fab2b",
      "question": "Base FDV above $10B one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 202",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$10B: The token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid market source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, resolves by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.17,
      "implied_probability": 0.17,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 35.294116,
      "volume_total_usd": 55172.686908,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 10000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-A19903C563",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "base",
        "fdv",
        "token-launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FMK6G250C7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WDD1X55X97",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf07d6177e9b12995958e1e9591514625dd36f268272bb7f1fd50a4ebcd443f00",
      "question": "Base FDV above $12B one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 202",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$12B: The token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid market source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, resolves by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.18,
      "implied_probability": 0.18,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 36.333332,
      "volume_total_usd": 93178.005371,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 12000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-2837EB6C91",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "base",
        "fdv",
        "token-launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-WDD1X55X97",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}