{
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    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-PBPJ543L75",
  "slug": "berlin-state-election-3rd-place-20260708010022790",
  "question": "Will the third-place party in the Berlin State Election receive less than 10% of the vote?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "germany",
    "berlin",
    "2026",
    "electoral-competition"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which party finishes third by seat count in the Berlin state election on September 20, 2026. Each contract is a binary on a single named party, making the set a mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive probability distribution across candidates. All markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against official results published by Berlin's electoral authority. Ties or seat-counting disputes at the third-place rank represent the primary resolution caveat.",
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-JW1GVY2ZK2",
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    "implied_probability": 0.29
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PBPJ543L75",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xe342510197855a274a85ef0e0b1e65ebd6490100cc0f4f79ee909aa31683c9cc",
      "question": "Will CDU win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?",
      "description": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "CDU: Official results from the Berlin state election held September 20, 2026, published by Berlin's electoral authority, determine which party wins the third-most Abgeordnetenhaus seats.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-20T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-20T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/",
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      "question": "Will AfD win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?",
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      "close_at": "2026-09-20T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-20T23:59:00Z",
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      "question": "Will Grüne win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?",
      "description": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ",
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      "underlying_reference": "Grüne: Official results from the Berlin state election held September 20, 2026, published by Berlin's electoral authority, determine which party wins the third-most Abgeordnetenhaus seats.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-20T23:59:00Z",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/",
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      "question": "Will SPD win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?",
      "description": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ",
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      "underlying_reference": "SPD: Official results from the Berlin state election held September 20, 2026, published by Berlin's electoral authority, determine which party wins the third-most Abgeordnetenhaus seats.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-20T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-20T23:59:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)\n",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/",
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      "question": "Will FDP win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?",
      "description": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ",
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        "rules_raw": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)\n",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/",
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            "url": "https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/",
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      "question": "Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?",
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      "close_at": "2026-09-20T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-20T23:59:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)\n",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/",
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      "question": "Will FW win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?",
      "description": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ",
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