{
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-99FRTX6C37",
  "slug": "berlin-state-election-winner",
  "question": "Will the SPD win the most seats in the Berlin State Election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "germany",
    "berlin",
    "2026",
    "state-election"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which party wins the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state Abgeordnetenhaus election. Each Polymarket contract isolates a single party as the binary outcome. All markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against official results published by Berlin's election authority. The authoritative source is the Berlin state election authority's certified seat count.",
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-TXL9NS8XL8",
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    "implied_probability": 0.13
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-99FRTX6C37",
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      "question": "Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?",
      "description": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose li",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "AfD: The Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin's official election results, published by Berlin's election authority by December 31, 2026, determine which listed party wins the most seats in the September 20, 2026 state election.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/",
        "sources": [
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.13,
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      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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        "berlin",
        "election",
        "germany"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "question": "Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?",
      "description": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose li",
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      "underlying_reference": "SPD: The Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin's official election results, published by Berlin's election authority by December 31, 2026, determine which listed party wins the most seats in the September 20, 2026 state election.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?",
      "description": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose li",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Linke: The Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin's official election results, published by Berlin's election authority by December 31, 2026, determine which listed party wins the most seats in the September 20, 2026 state election.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/",
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        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.39,
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      "tags": [
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        "linke"
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      "question": "Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?",
      "description": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose li",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "BSW: The Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin's official election results, published by Berlin's election authority by December 31, 2026, determine which listed party wins the most seats in the September 20, 2026 state election.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/",
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      "question": "Will Party B win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?",
      "description": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose li",
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      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Party B: The Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin's official election results, published by Berlin's election authority by December 31, 2026, determine which listed party wins the most seats in the September 20, 2026 state election.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)\n",
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        "caps": [],
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      "tags": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-99FRTX6C37",
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      "question": "Will Party D win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?",
      "description": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose li",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Party D: The Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin's official election results, published by Berlin's election authority by December 31, 2026, determine which listed party wins the most seats in the September 20, 2026 state election.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/",
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        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-99FRTX6C37",
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      "question": "Will Party F win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?",
      "description": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose li",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Party F: The Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin's official election results, published by Berlin's election authority by December 31, 2026, determine which listed party wins the most seats in the September 20, 2026 state election.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)\n",
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      "underlying_reference": "Party H: The Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin's official election results, published by Berlin's election authority by December 31, 2026, determine which listed party wins the most seats in the September 20, 2026 state election.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)\n",
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        "rules_raw": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)\n",
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        "rules_raw": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)\n",
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        "rules_raw": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)\n",
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        "rules_raw": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)\n",
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      "resolution": {
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      "question": "Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?",
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      "underlying_reference": "Grüne: The Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin's official election results, published by Berlin's election authority by December 31, 2026, determine which listed party wins the most seats in the September 20, 2026 state election.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)\n",
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      "close_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
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