{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZCS9QQ64W5",
  "slug": "best-ai-model-on-august-1-20260717010751015",
  "question": "Will the best AI model on August 1 be Claude 3.5 Sonnet?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "tech",
    "model-performance",
    "artificial-intelligence",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which AI model holds the top rank on the Arena.ai Text Arena Overall Leaderboard on August 1, 2026. Four binary contracts cover three named Anthropic models plus an \"any other model\" catch-all, making them mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. Polymarket prices each outcome as a separate binary, meaning collective probabilities across all four legs should sum to approximately 100%. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle protocol using the Arena.ai leaderboard snapshot as the authoritative source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-XB9KGMM804",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.82,
    "implied_probability": 0.82
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XB9KGMM804",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZCS9QQ64W5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3fd88b964ac857396166f3372ad517cd8c2ac95c99fae12c2a6fffedba88be77",
      "question": "Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "claude-opus-4-6-thinking: The named model with the highest rank in the Arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard on August 1, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the \"Other\" option.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Text Arena | Overall",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.82,
      "implied_probability": 0.82,
      "volume_24h_usd": 775.419528,
      "volume_total_usd": 11230.356333000002,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-CC5FDD95F6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "claude",
        "claude opus thinking",
        "model-ranking"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SDMRRY1H62",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZCS9QQ64W5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x494c30ba78a89b945bc23769e4d00847f2df74f0f011410849bac84441fe72ca",
      "question": "Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "claude-opus-4-6: The named model with the highest rank in the Arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard on August 1, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the \"Other\" option.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Text Arena | Overall",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.009,
      "implied_probability": 0.009,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 493.417666,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-EB56CAD751",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "claude",
        "claude opus",
        "model-ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M7KHTYTDV5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZCS9QQ64W5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6511df770340c4b3210abef21ab1fc696b3d0a94cfa98c7fa30aab18652e4fc6",
      "question": "Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "claude-fable-5: The named model with the highest rank in the Arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard on August 1, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the \"Other\" option.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Text Arena | Overall",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1346.791666,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-49214852A1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "claude",
        "claude fable",
        "model-ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9K203K6374",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZCS9QQ64W5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8a6c706b110cd970198fd99817e118c80c94f74bc74ac1ab65fd7fa79ee27df5",
      "question": "Will any other model be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Other: The named model with the highest rank in the Arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard on August 1, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the \"Other\" option.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Text Arena | Overall",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.19,
      "implied_probability": 0.19,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 872.1852679999998,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A1592B11BE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "model-ranking",
        "other ai model"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-ZCS9QQ64W5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}