{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-2VFN95W822",
  "slug": "best-ai-model-on-august-17-20260730202018839",
  "question": "What will be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "model-comparison",
    "tech",
    "leaderboard",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which AI model holds the top rank on the Arena.ai Text Arena Overall Leaderboard on August 17, 2026. Five named Claude variants and an open \"any other model\" contract form a mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive set. All six resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the Arena.ai leaderboard rank column. The \"any other model\" leg captures residual probability across non-Claude competitors not explicitly named.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-YH23HDT2T8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.7,
    "implied_probability": 0.7
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YH23HDT2T8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2VFN95W822",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x04317f61c3531028ba929fdbf978ffa3291d387deaa45da898660d2dd0cff9e2",
      "question": "Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "claude-opus-5-max: The Arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard \"Rank\" column at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control on August 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET determines the highest-ranked model.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-17T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the \"Other\" option.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.7,
      "implied_probability": 0.7,
      "volume_24h_usd": 899.831168,
      "volume_total_usd": 8535.514726,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-B2176F3E5C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "claude",
        "claude opus max",
        "model-ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LFJR3TKK79",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2VFN95W822",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb5a1c654f8cb0999b214a70d8b9bd80a45325e4a1bc0703575963c9b753fc608",
      "question": "Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "claude-opus-5-high: The Arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard \"Rank\" column at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control on August 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET determines the highest-ranked model.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-17T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the \"Other\" option.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 55,
      "volume_total_usd": 617.373332,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-8B68F514BB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "claude",
        "claude opus",
        "model-ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9BZLXNW5N7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2VFN95W822",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1afb686199929d376ef1aadaaaa5e3e56cc1e3171b69553f346032c053b40dad",
      "question": "Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "claude-opus-4-6-thinking: The Arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard \"Rank\" column at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control on August 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET determines the highest-ranked model.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-17T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the \"Other\" option.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 349.87263,
      "volume_total_usd": 2372.44663,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-412BB28709",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "claude",
        "claude opus thinking",
        "model-ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-11895Z3816",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2VFN95W822",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5375ca42e0f4623b0f68822febe44efdf7ad436f8d35c9469312cd56488a6e1c",
      "question": "Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "claude-opus-4-6: The Arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard \"Rank\" column at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control on August 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET determines the highest-ranked model.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-17T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the \"Other\" option.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.017,
      "implied_probability": 0.017,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 620.6824000000001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-1C1B132C6F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "claude",
        "claude opus",
        "model-ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N34G2JPQM1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2VFN95W822",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2312d25abe09a16c010dd5e1a76e69020a974d25448b8e9d4c4e7622f4929d6f",
      "question": "Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "claude-fable-5: The Arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard \"Rank\" column at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control on August 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET determines the highest-ranked model.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-17T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the \"Other\" option.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 19.5705,
      "volume_total_usd": 576.8929,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-0236E7DCA9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "claude",
        "claude fable",
        "model-ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VZP1CJ5Y65",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2VFN95W822",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xad72696cf0d7e6a0e869f5590b4517bf36c0f0b3f444d5456ca7250940e6ae66",
      "question": "Will any other model be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Other: The Arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard \"Rank\" column at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control on August 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET determines the highest-ranked model.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-17T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the \"Other\" option.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 70,
      "volume_total_usd": 737.45,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-C48A965BD3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "model-ranking",
        "other model"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-2VFN95W822",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}