{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-NYQM4F2GD5",
  "slug": "best-ai-model-on-june-13",
  "question": "Will the best AI model on June 13 be different from the current best AI model?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "tech",
    "model-performance",
    "benchmarking",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which AI model holds the top rank on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Text Arena Overall column on June 13, 2026. All six markets are structured as mutually exclusive binaries across five named models and a residual catch-all. The named contenders span Anthropic's Claude Opus 4 and 4.7 variants and Google's Gemini 3.1 and 3.5 lines. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle reading the lmarena.ai leaderboard at the specified date.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-XLK23HQXH8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y1FY836KR9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NYQM4F2GD5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xeec29813f9fb084675e59b2f2859e126e9e9fcbdb1143ed35647c9ad3a010450",
      "question": "Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the \"Other\" option.\n\nModels will be ordered pr",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "claude-opus-4-6-thinking: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Text Arena | Overall\" Rank column at lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text on June 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines the highest-ranked model.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the \"Other\" option.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 14058.938097999995,
      "volume_total_usd": 58959.28969799999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-5F83BF3BB6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "claude",
        "claude opus thinking",
        "model"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0YTJ1JCQK7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NYQM4F2GD5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6233668940c42bc1e057873fc5fa1db5328baad551c5ffab6874790c0162a5a4",
      "question": "Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the \"Other\" option.\n\nModels will be ordered pr",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "claude-opus-4-6: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Text Arena | Overall\" Rank column at lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text on June 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines the highest-ranked model.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the \"Other\" option.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1969.95,
      "volume_total_usd": 13339.505911,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-D7E64E359B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "claude",
        "claude opus",
        "model"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-88VBYMML96",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NYQM4F2GD5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x32f7f3e66068cfcfa3273aaea0c1b66ebc82231a2a855cc23bdf92186368b22f",
      "question": "Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the \"Other\" option.\n\nModels will be ordered pr",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "claude-opus-4-7-thinking: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Text Arena | Overall\" Rank column at lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text on June 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines the highest-ranked model.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the \"Other\" option.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 154.99,
      "volume_total_usd": 8351.863623,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-08F2A72F04",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "claude",
        "claude opus thinking",
        "model"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F0ZLCTPJN4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NYQM4F2GD5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x68c8f0504f5fbdc93f18d1ba2c6485b19e3c5ce48e0ec3beb11dd0a95b5de541",
      "question": "Will gemini-3.1-pro-preview be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the \"Other\" option.\n\nModels will be ordered pr",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Text Arena | Overall\" Rank column at lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text on June 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines the highest-ranked model.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the \"Other\" option.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 55,
      "volume_total_usd": 6120.813475999999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-33103E25A2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "gemini pro preview",
        "model"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XX31833DR9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NYQM4F2GD5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcd793af7702efaf2b8c0844faf7c64d80206512264adc22f2cc5ff4e96c20693",
      "question": "Will gemini-3.5-flash be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the \"Other\" option.\n\nModels will be ordered pr",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "gemini-3.5-flash: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Text Arena | Overall\" Rank column at lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text on June 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines the highest-ranked model.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the \"Other\" option.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 50,
      "volume_total_usd": 2344.7071,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-33A971B8FD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "gemini flash",
        "model"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XLK23HQXH8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NYQM4F2GD5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfbfe428c1cc89bc0cc87f0f95b3ded63f7a517276f99a14512a641c35959d051",
      "question": "Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the \"Other\" option.\n\nModels will be ordered pr",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Other: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Text Arena | Overall\" Rank column at lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text on June 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines the highest-ranked model.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the \"Other\" option.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 11566.445838,
      "volume_total_usd": 68539.80868000002,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-2938284994",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "model",
        "other ai model"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y1FY836KR9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-13T19:30:57Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XLK23HQXH8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-13T18:59:57Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0YTJ1JCQK7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-13T18:02:28Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-88VBYMML96",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-13T18:02:28Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F0ZLCTPJN4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-13T18:02:28Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XX31833DR9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-13T18:02:28Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-NYQM4F2GD5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}