{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-YDR46DCK15",
  "slug": "bitcoin-up-or-down-august-4-2026-1pm-et",
  "question": "Will Bitcoin's price be higher at August 4, 1 PM ET than at the previous closing price?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "bitcoin",
    "price-direction",
    "intraday-resolution",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether Bitcoin's price rises or falls over the 1 PM ET hour on August 4, 2026. Resolution uses the Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle open and close prices for that window. Only one platform is active here, so no cross-platform structural comparison applies. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle determines the outcome using Binance as the authoritative price source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-MMMYJ841V1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.99,
    "implied_probability": 0.99
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MMMYJ841V1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YDR46DCK15",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd8c0faacacf651903c73e8547f14ffc7a3888d0129a7ad0ccfc08d19b4c1af20",
      "question": "Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 1PM ET",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Up\" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"Down\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant \"1H\" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.\n\nPlease note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/U",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle open and close prices for August 4, 2026 at 1 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T18:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T18:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Up\" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"Down\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant \"1H\" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.\n\nPlease note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "binance.com",
            "url": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Binance",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Binance BTC/USDT",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Binance",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 17843.45159100001,
      "volume_total_usd": 17843.451590999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-1E727CB01C",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZF9FFV0LJ8",
          "price": 0
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-716507SCN1",
          "price": 0
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-4X4BJF3MW4",
          "price": 0
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-WNR9CJ8JX8",
          "price": 0
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-SQGJ3G5750",
          "price": 0
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-8D2BTS68T0",
          "price": 0
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-C4V3JTG9F1",
          "price": 0
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-L9ZJGSK367",
          "price": 0
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-JGBLRQRX48",
          "price": 0
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZLD1SJQB58",
          "price": 0
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-BVPLPVHL94",
          "price": 0
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-TBQ749PXR9",
          "price": 0
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-G8FBSS1688",
          "price": 0
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-SXQJ3C5NX7",
          "price": 0
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-N44C1R86C8",
          "price": 0
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-9HCPZ20YP8",
          "price": 0.01
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-1J0RMV3VJ0",
          "price": 0
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-BN7NT80066",
          "price": 0
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-X4MRVNFT08",
          "price": 0
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-K7M7004NL2",
          "price": 0
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-JV13NPVXF4",
          "price": 0
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-LTF4VF12X0",
          "price": 0
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "btc",
        "direction",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-YDR46DCK15",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}