{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3HDQG11JV0",
  "slug": "bitcoin-vs-gold-vs-sp-500-in-2026",
  "question": "Will Bitcoin outperform both Gold and the S&P 500 in 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "bitcoin-outperformance",
    "asset-class-comparison",
    "crypto",
    "2026",
    "returns-benchmark",
    "finance"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These three Polymarket markets collectively ask which single asset — Bitcoin, Gold, or the S&P 500 — posts the highest total return in 2026. The markets are mutually exclusive; exactly one resolves YES and the others resolve NO. All three resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using year-end price comparisons. Note a sourcing anomaly: all three market descriptions reference Binance BTC/USDT as the price feed, regardless of asset class, which raises questions about Gold and S&P 500 resolution methodology.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-H5HX4LJFC5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.16,
    "implied_probability": 0.16
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H5HX4LJFC5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3HDQG11JV0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb276435811dc77171602f790db2b5900e780adfadb7cff57e547d58fb1a8215f",
      "question": "Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the asset which has the best performance in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the year for each asset. \n\nThe percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the \"Close\" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET to the \"Close\" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source for Bitcoin will be Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT \"Close\" prices currently available ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Bitcoin: Binance BTC/USDT closing price on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET versus December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET determines which listed asset achieved highest percentage gain.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the asset which has the best performance in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the year for each asset. \n\nThe percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the \"Close\" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET to the \"Close\" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source for Bitcoin will be Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT \"Close\" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT in the chart with \"1m\" and \"Candles\" selected on the top bar and the mouse on the candle for the relevant minute (the “time tools” selection may be used to view historical candles).\n\nThe percentage change in Gold will be calculated by comparing the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by MarketWatch.\n\nThe resolution source for Gold will be MarketWatch, specifically the close values reported for Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) under “Historical Quotes” at https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00.\n\nThe percentage change in the S&P 500 will be calculated by comparing the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by Yahoo Finance.\n\nThe resolution source for the S&P 500 will be Yahoo Finance, specifically the Close values published by Yahoo Finance for S&P 500 Index (^SPX) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history/.\n\nIf two or more listed assets have exactly the same performance for 2026, this market will resolve according to the asset whose name, as listed in the title of this market, comes first alphabetically (e.g. if Bitcoin and Gold tie, this market will resolve to Bitcoin).\n\nOnly closing prices will be used for all calculations; total return measures will not be applied.\n\nIf either of the relevant trading days are shortened, the official closing price published for that session will be used.\n\nIf any relevant day lacks a specified closing price, the last valid historical closing price offered by the resolution source will be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "binance.com",
            "url": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "marketwatch.com",
            "url": "https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "finance.yahoo.com",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Binance",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "MarketWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Yahoo Finance",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Binance",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": 75.28999999999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 425688.2031209992,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-6B2745BF2D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "btc",
        "cryptocurrency"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B8461H7VY6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3HDQG11JV0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x23db4bef50396fe700d23cb2eaa7d726da9280f7ce3ecd54126a976e9591c7bf",
      "question": "Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the asset which has the best performance in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the year for each asset. \n\nThe percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the \"Close\" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET to the \"Close\" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source for Bitcoin will be Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT \"Close\" prices currently available ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Gold: Binance BTC/USDT closing price on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET versus December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET determines which listed asset achieved highest percentage gain.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the asset which has the best performance in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the year for each asset. \n\nThe percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the \"Close\" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET to the \"Close\" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source for Bitcoin will be Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT \"Close\" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT in the chart with \"1m\" and \"Candles\" selected on the top bar and the mouse on the candle for the relevant minute (the “time tools” selection may be used to view historical candles).\n\nThe percentage change in Gold will be calculated by comparing the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by MarketWatch.\n\nThe resolution source for Gold will be MarketWatch, specifically the close values reported for Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) under “Historical Quotes” at https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00.\n\nThe percentage change in the S&P 500 will be calculated by comparing the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by Yahoo Finance.\n\nThe resolution source for the S&P 500 will be Yahoo Finance, specifically the Close values published by Yahoo Finance for S&P 500 Index (^SPX) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history/.\n\nIf two or more listed assets have exactly the same performance for 2026, this market will resolve according to the asset whose name, as listed in the title of this market, comes first alphabetically (e.g. if Bitcoin and Gold tie, this market will resolve to Bitcoin).\n\nOnly closing prices will be used for all calculations; total return measures will not be applied.\n\nIf either of the relevant trading days are shortened, the official closing price published for that session will be used.\n\nIf any relevant day lacks a specified closing price, the last valid historical closing price offered by the resolution source will be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "binance.com",
            "url": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "marketwatch.com",
            "url": "https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "finance.yahoo.com",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Binance",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "MarketWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Yahoo Finance",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Binance",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": 42.940475,
      "volume_total_usd": 265035.9490419997,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-4846EE1FAF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodity",
        "gold",
        "precious metal"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8K6HJFQRX8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3HDQG11JV0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5290e1debd1d164f7828f32c9da7747018462293928a8624e27a070b7255f1f1",
      "question": "Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the asset which has the best performance in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the year for each asset. \n\nThe percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the \"Close\" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET to the \"Close\" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source for Bitcoin will be Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT \"Close\" prices currently available ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "S&P 500: Binance BTC/USDT closing price on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET versus December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET determines which listed asset achieved highest percentage gain.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the asset which has the best performance in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the year for each asset. \n\nThe percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the \"Close\" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET to the \"Close\" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source for Bitcoin will be Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT \"Close\" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT in the chart with \"1m\" and \"Candles\" selected on the top bar and the mouse on the candle for the relevant minute (the “time tools” selection may be used to view historical candles).\n\nThe percentage change in Gold will be calculated by comparing the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by MarketWatch.\n\nThe resolution source for Gold will be MarketWatch, specifically the close values reported for Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) under “Historical Quotes” at https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00.\n\nThe percentage change in the S&P 500 will be calculated by comparing the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by Yahoo Finance.\n\nThe resolution source for the S&P 500 will be Yahoo Finance, specifically the Close values published by Yahoo Finance for S&P 500 Index (^SPX) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history/.\n\nIf two or more listed assets have exactly the same performance for 2026, this market will resolve according to the asset whose name, as listed in the title of this market, comes first alphabetically (e.g. if Bitcoin and Gold tie, this market will resolve to Bitcoin).\n\nOnly closing prices will be used for all calculations; total return measures will not be applied.\n\nIf either of the relevant trading days are shortened, the official closing price published for that session will be used.\n\nIf any relevant day lacks a specified closing price, the last valid historical closing price offered by the resolution source will be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "binance.com",
            "url": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "marketwatch.com",
            "url": "https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "finance.yahoo.com",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Binance",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "MarketWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Yahoo Finance",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Binance",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.69,
      "implied_probability": 0.69,
      "volume_24h_usd": 168.683041,
      "volume_total_usd": 180947.85369200012,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-2A90897DA6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "500",
        "equity index",
        "stock market"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-3HDQG11JV0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}