{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4N4F192YB2",
  "slug": "blue-wave-in-2026",
  "question": "Will there be a blue wave in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "congress",
    "elections",
    "us-midterms-2026",
    "democratic-gains",
    "election-outcome"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Democrats will capture unified congressional control in the 2026 midterm elections. Resolution depends on certified House and Senate seat counts reported by the Associated Press following the November 2026 elections. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle governs settlement using state-certified results as the authoritative source. No cross-platform structural contrast is available; only one market is listed under this event.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-50KWTT4HV4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.74,
    "implied_probability": 0.74
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-50KWTT4HV4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4N4F192YB2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xed4fd09a24f20a3afc1d722ace811fffff3cffd9a56a3fbffc47f4d3d47a88ed",
      "question": "Blue wave in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:\n\n- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House\n- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.\n\nThe full rules for this market can be found here:\nhttps://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The House and Senate seat counts as certified by state election officials and reported by the Associated Press following the November 2026 midterm elections.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:\n\n- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House\n- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.\n\nThe full rules for this market can be found here:\nhttps://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 71,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.74,
      "implied_probability": 0.74,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 52969.480934999985,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026-midterms",
        "democrats",
        "us democratic electoral",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-4N4F192YB2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}