{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-2NF81BZ4K5",
  "slug": "brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory",
  "question": "Will the margin of victory in Brazil's presidential election first round be less than 5 percentage points?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "elections",
    "politics",
    "brazil",
    "2026",
    "margin-of-victory",
    "presidential"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the October 2026 Brazilian presidential election first round. Polymarket structures margin-of-victory tiers for Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro alongside binary outcome contracts for other named candidates. All eleven markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against Brazil's Superior Electoral Court official results published at dadosabertos.tse.jus.br. No Kalshi equivalent is present, so cross-platform structural comparison is unavailable for this event.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-Q5Y1T8FNQ5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.01,
    "implied_probability": 0.01
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2NF81BZ4K5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5d5b8feb963ddcc0f4688f7ac0c0d375f99945b7a07155d60cd1a306c6b3054b",
      "question": "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?",
      "description": "A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all v",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Lula da Silva <5%: Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) official results published at dadosabertos.tse.jus.br will determine the margin of victory between the top two candidates in valid votes cast on October 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.14,
      "implied_probability": 0.14,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 17092.661510999995,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2NF81BZ4K5",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x5377b12dd060efd8e3597620f120648f1bf99452a95eb70374b128d9ca133227",
      "question": "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?",
      "description": "A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all v",
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      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_citation": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
        "sources": [
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        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.35,
      "implied_probability": 0.35,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 14484.967287,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
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      "tags": [
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        "presidential"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HY83L86CR1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2NF81BZ4K5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd99603add7350a5ff33c8dc609ab0eaae2d5d18162bb00eeb63c38c81ae038f8",
      "question": "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?",
      "description": "A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all v",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Lula da Silva 10-15%: Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) official results published at dadosabertos.tse.jus.br will determine the margin of victory between the top two candidates in valid votes cast on October 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "dadosabertos.tse.jus.br",
            "url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
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          {
            "name": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.245,
      "implied_probability": 0.245,
      "volume_24h_usd": 245.27999999999997,
      "volume_total_usd": 19905.572027000013,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "brazil",
        "first-round",
        "luiz cio lula",
        "presidential"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S6P4KG15D4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2NF81BZ4K5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9dd4229c1346ba75c83a20b8176a02bae4f16a1dfd37f8b5a413d1ea69d8e03c",
      "question": "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%?",
      "description": "A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all v",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Lula da Silva 15%+: Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) official results published at dadosabertos.tse.jus.br will determine the margin of victory between the top two candidates in valid votes cast on October 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).",
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        "source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.094,
      "implied_probability": 0.094,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3.5,
      "volume_total_usd": 10731.528994999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 15,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T6MD6W1TW8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2NF81BZ4K5",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x25966b196ffc1682fc77df0298784831a60aea8abe03b9aa4fc219d1422feb9f",
      "question": "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?",
      "description": "A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all v",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
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      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "dadosabertos.tse.jus.br",
            "url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
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          {
            "name": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.055,
      "implied_probability": 0.055,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 8097.462543999998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
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      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "fl vio bolsonaro",
        "presidential"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NMNYLWZ2S9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2NF81BZ4K5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3a539f4052dc3340948b9f56119fbee92919f7bf9bb3cc73fd7feeb310d030d4",
      "question": "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?",
      "description": "A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all v",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%: Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) official results published at dadosabertos.tse.jus.br will determine the margin of victory between the top two candidates in valid votes cast on October 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "dadosabertos.tse.jus.br",
            "url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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