{ "_notice": { "type": "free_key_offer", "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.", "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/", "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change." }, "event_id": "CM-EVT-TD97721XP2", "slug": "ca-01-house-election-winner", "question": "Will the Democratic Party win the CA-01 House seat?", "category": "politics", "event_type": "BINARY", "ladder_distribution": null, "tags": [ "politics", "elections", "2026-us-midterms", "california-politics", "house-races", "electoral-prediction" ], "catalyst_types": [], "catalyst_dates": [], "editorial_notes": "These markets track the outcome of the CA-01 U.S. House race, resolving November 3, 2026. Polymarket offers both party-level and candidate-level contracts on the same seat. Party contracts aggregate outcome probability; candidate contracts isolate individual winner probability. All contracts resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against Associated Press results for November 4, 2026.", "venues_covered": [ "polymarket" ], "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-GMDG276TQ1", "current_primary_mark": { "last_price": 0.93, "implied_probability": 0.93 }, "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00", "markets": [ { "market_id": "CM-MKT-VHTC32MQ25", "event_id": "CM-EVT-TD97721XP2", "platform": "polymarket", "platform_market_id": "0x9fe728892ee2e64aebd74bed9faaff0a5c578405abff844bc0a61393178c98e7", "question": "Will the Republican Party win the CA-01 House seat?", "description": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.\n\nA candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these p", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USDC", "underlying_reference": "Associated Press election results for the CA-01 U.S. House seat on November 4, 2026.", "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.\n\nA candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).", "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle", "proposer": "managed_whitelist", "source": null, "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.fec.gov/", "sources": null, "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": null, "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 54, "caps": [ "multi_source_no_conflict_rule", "uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.031, "implied_probability": 0.031, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 8680.811050999999, "settlement_style": "occurrence", "direction": "occurrence", "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2024", "ca-01", "house", "republican", "republican party" ], "eligibility_screens": null }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-GMDG276TQ1", "event_id": "CM-EVT-TD97721XP2", "platform": "polymarket", "platform_market_id": "0xb54d34c4e90d8b52430f6f51413f2908b65d6cf8657a8cfad2e7f595dbd28de2", "question": "Will the Democratic Party win the CA-01 House seat?", "description": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.\n\nA candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these p", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USDC", "underlying_reference": "Associated Press election results for the CA-01 U.S. House seat on November 4, 2026.", "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.\n\nA candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).", "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle", "proposer": "managed_whitelist", "source": null, "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.fec.gov/", "sources": null, "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": null, "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 54, "caps": [ "multi_source_no_conflict_rule", "uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.93, "implied_probability": 0.93, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 22000.192514000002, "settlement_style": "occurrence", "direction": "occurrence", "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2024", "ca-01", "democrat", "democratic party", "house" ], "eligibility_screens": null } ], "resolution_log": [], "_provenance": { "source": "clearmarket.fyi", "ref": "CM-EVT-TD97721XP2", "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi" } }