{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-CJTRC1GFQ6",
  "slug": "canada-annual-inflation-2026",
  "question": "Will Canada's annual inflation rate in 2026 be above 2%?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "inflation",
    "canada-economy",
    "cpi-metric",
    "macroeconomic-data",
    "2027-resolution"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Canada's full-year 2026 Consumer Price Index inflation rate as published by Statistics Canada. Eight Polymarket binary contracts collectively span the full rate distribution, from below 1.0% to 4.0% and above, in contiguous 0.5-percentage-point tiers. Together they imply a probability-weighted view of where annual CPI will settle for the 12-month period ending December 2026. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using the Statistics Canada CPI report expected January 18, 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-BNG6HFXFS3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.273,
    "implied_probability": 0.273
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CD0DL6TL91",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CJTRC1GFQ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x50c672949cfbc8c2cb7d2437315964031b4792788e49d426e2dd8f9c83433cc1",
      "question": "Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 1.5% and 1.9%?",
      "description": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolut",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1.5–1.9%: Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index report for the 12-month period ending December 2026, released January 18, 2027, resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-18T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-18T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nOnce available, you can find this report by clicking on the \"Major Economic Indicators\" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the \"% change\" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "statcan.gc.ca",
            "url": "https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "www150.statcan.gc.ca",
            "url": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Statistics Canada",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Statistics Canada CPI news release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Statistics Canada",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.039,
      "implied_probability": 0.039,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3330.3220939999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 1.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-A8E44A20D6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cad",
        "canada inflation",
        "cpi",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZC7C8Y6H07",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CJTRC1GFQ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfd60f6e9e3ee002868e4fd33dc2826d0a27bf9ed3c0bae0be7a9c340b73ead32",
      "question": "Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be less than 1.0%?",
      "description": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolut",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<1.0%: Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index report for the 12-month period ending December 2026, released January 18, 2027, resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-18T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-18T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nOnce available, you can find this report by clicking on the \"Major Economic Indicators\" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the \"% change\" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "statcan.gc.ca",
            "url": "https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "www150.statcan.gc.ca",
            "url": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Statistics Canada",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Statistics Canada CPI news release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Statistics Canada",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.012,
      "implied_probability": 0.012,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1027.551225,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": "CMX-B41FD1E47C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cad",
        "canada inflation",
        "cpi",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6YWDBGKDR0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CJTRC1GFQ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8ce14b22b63640c244c389113499e9f7da4f918b43238e952cfed32fc5e42bac",
      "question": "Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 1.0% and 1.4%?",
      "description": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolut",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1.0–1.4%: Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index report for the 12-month period ending December 2026, released January 18, 2027, resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-18T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-18T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nOnce available, you can find this report by clicking on the \"Major Economic Indicators\" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the \"% change\" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "statcan.gc.ca",
            "url": "https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "www150.statcan.gc.ca",
            "url": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Statistics Canada",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Statistics Canada CPI news release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Statistics Canada",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.033,
      "implied_probability": 0.033,
      "volume_24h_usd": 140,
      "volume_total_usd": 4390.219230999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": "CMX-E425DA082D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cad",
        "canada inflation",
        "cpi",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D57PFXLDV2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CJTRC1GFQ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x83859c8ef5712e17bde5a92cb027a9fdc41a7b1b76e6ee06bdd830215b5b1f5f",
      "question": "Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 2.0% and 2.4%?",
      "description": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolut",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "2.0–2.4%: Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index report for the 12-month period ending December 2026, released January 18, 2027, resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-18T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-18T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nOnce available, you can find this report by clicking on the \"Major Economic Indicators\" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the \"% change\" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "statcan.gc.ca",
            "url": "https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "www150.statcan.gc.ca",
            "url": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Statistics Canada",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Statistics Canada CPI news release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Statistics Canada",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.308,
      "implied_probability": 0.308,
      "volume_24h_usd": 252.64,
      "volume_total_usd": 794.2021020000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": "CMX-E425DA082D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cad",
        "canada inflation",
        "cpi",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-67ZGWDS1N1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CJTRC1GFQ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xde3801fcbe45f94ab23ae56c8fdd759b5736d8d92c774688acde561987e6115a",
      "question": "Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%?",
      "description": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolut",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "2.5–2.9%: Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index report for the 12-month period ending December 2026, released January 18, 2027, resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-18T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-18T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nOnce available, you can find this report by clicking on the \"Major Economic Indicators\" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the \"% change\" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "statcan.gc.ca",
            "url": "https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "www150.statcan.gc.ca",
            "url": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Statistics Canada",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Statistics Canada CPI news release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Statistics Canada",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.31,
      "implied_probability": 0.31,
      "volume_24h_usd": 207,
      "volume_total_usd": 6069.424344,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 2.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-E425DA082D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cad",
        "canada inflation",
        "cpi",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-43GMN3PX57",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CJTRC1GFQ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfa681624353bc0ed097d0219e042bcf22c84495b1c15847b308b4d2f5af74364",
      "question": "Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be at least 4.0%?",
      "description": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolut",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "4.0%+: Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index report for the 12-month period ending December 2026, released January 18, 2027, resolves the outcome.",
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