{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5PQ4Z7D292",
  "slug": "candidates-in-next-labour-leadership-election",
  "question": "Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "uk-politics",
    "labour-party",
    "leadership-election",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether six named individuals will stand as candidates in the next Labour Party leadership election. Each contract is binary and candidate-specific; taken together, they form a composite picture of the probable field. All six resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, using Labour Party official confirmation or credible reporting consensus as the authoritative source. Resolution is set for December 31, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-7BYK221Y07",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7BYK221Y07",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5PQ4Z7D292",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa9aebaf0db62416ddd70acd8eef6bf17902bc1d31746d9286a1b3c3e4fc612bb",
      "question": "Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is an official candidate in the next United Kingdom Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Official candidate” refers to the listed individual satisfying all applicable requirements and being officially confirmed by the Labour Party, or a consensus of credible reporting, as a candidate on the ballot for the next Labour Party leadership election. Seeking nominations, announcing an intention to run, or being reported as a potential candidate will not qualify unle",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Keir Starmer: Labour Party official confirmation or credible reporting consensus determines whether the named individual appears on the ballot for the next UK Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is an official candidate in the next United Kingdom Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Official candidate” refers to the listed individual satisfying all applicable requirements and being officially confirmed by the Labour Party, or a consensus of credible reporting, as a candidate on the ballot for the next Labour Party leadership election. Seeking nominations, announcing an intention to run, or being reported as a potential candidate will not qualify unless the individual is officially confirmed as a candidate on the ballot.\n\nIf a Labour Party leadership election occurs, or the final candidates are confirmed, and the listed individual is not included as a candidate, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such election is scheduled, or the listed individual is not officially confirmed as a candidate, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the listed individual becomes the next leader of the Labour Party without any competitive ballot election, that will suffice for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 91.20491400000002,
      "volume_total_usd": 10133.104071,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "keir starmer",
        "labour",
        "leadership",
        "uk politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DN6SJ570Q2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5PQ4Z7D292",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7aa20656cfaabda288e3d94c1db790f1a6e4ad0f7b277403df976f0d44cd1c94",
      "question": "Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is an official candidate in the next United Kingdom Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Official candidate” refers to the listed individual satisfying all applicable requirements and being officially confirmed by the Labour Party, or a consensus of credible reporting, as a candidate on the ballot for the next Labour Party leadership election. Seeking nominations, announcing an intention to run, or being reported as a potential candidate will not qualify unle",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Wes Streeting: Labour Party official confirmation or credible reporting consensus determines whether the named individual appears on the ballot for the next UK Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is an official candidate in the next United Kingdom Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Official candidate” refers to the listed individual satisfying all applicable requirements and being officially confirmed by the Labour Party, or a consensus of credible reporting, as a candidate on the ballot for the next Labour Party leadership election. Seeking nominations, announcing an intention to run, or being reported as a potential candidate will not qualify unless the individual is officially confirmed as a candidate on the ballot.\n\nIf a Labour Party leadership election occurs, or the final candidates are confirmed, and the listed individual is not included as a candidate, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such election is scheduled, or the listed individual is not officially confirmed as a candidate, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the listed individual becomes the next leader of the Labour Party without any competitive ballot election, that will suffice for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 332.49,
      "volume_total_usd": 5419.924860999998,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "labour",
        "leadership",
        "uk politics",
        "wes streeting"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C9KHW98BX4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5PQ4Z7D292",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa802710a0ed100d04a9a7ac3c4431199efd5b2e61fd90cba0a34c6aa4d37a033",
      "question": "Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is an official candidate in the next United Kingdom Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Official candidate” refers to the listed individual satisfying all applicable requirements and being officially confirmed by the Labour Party, or a consensus of credible reporting, as a candidate on the ballot for the next Labour Party leadership election. Seeking nominations, announcing an intention to run, or being reported as a potential candidate will not qualify unle",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Ed Miliband: Labour Party official confirmation or credible reporting consensus determines whether the named individual appears on the ballot for the next UK Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is an official candidate in the next United Kingdom Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Official candidate” refers to the listed individual satisfying all applicable requirements and being officially confirmed by the Labour Party, or a consensus of credible reporting, as a candidate on the ballot for the next Labour Party leadership election. Seeking nominations, announcing an intention to run, or being reported as a potential candidate will not qualify unless the individual is officially confirmed as a candidate on the ballot.\n\nIf a Labour Party leadership election occurs, or the final candidates are confirmed, and the listed individual is not included as a candidate, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such election is scheduled, or the listed individual is not officially confirmed as a candidate, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the listed individual becomes the next leader of the Labour Party without any competitive ballot election, that will suffice for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 335.316517,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ed miliband",
        "labour",
        "leadership",
        "uk politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QLKCLHW660",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5PQ4Z7D292",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x82f70f48cc8608aee1f9daf75f842cb9b5438b72cde0d120736cbd3c180255ce",
      "question": "Will Angela Rayner be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is an official candidate in the next United Kingdom Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Official candidate” refers to the listed individual satisfying all applicable requirements and being officially confirmed by the Labour Party, or a consensus of credible reporting, as a candidate on the ballot for the next Labour Party leadership election. Seeking nominations, announcing an intention to run, or being reported as a potential candidate will not qualify unle",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Angela Rayner: Labour Party official confirmation or credible reporting consensus determines whether the named individual appears on the ballot for the next UK Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is an official candidate in the next United Kingdom Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Official candidate” refers to the listed individual satisfying all applicable requirements and being officially confirmed by the Labour Party, or a consensus of credible reporting, as a candidate on the ballot for the next Labour Party leadership election. Seeking nominations, announcing an intention to run, or being reported as a potential candidate will not qualify unless the individual is officially confirmed as a candidate on the ballot.\n\nIf a Labour Party leadership election occurs, or the final candidates are confirmed, and the listed individual is not included as a candidate, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such election is scheduled, or the listed individual is not officially confirmed as a candidate, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the listed individual becomes the next leader of the Labour Party without any competitive ballot election, that will suffice for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1409.3922929999999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "angela rayner",
        "labour",
        "leadership",
        "uk politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-07W0KD9TX5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5PQ4Z7D292",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb0d456314cbe5014da46ff5d3e98782e127b51c6486a39dc15d5e03cb6cbbab6",
      "question": "Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is an official candidate in the next United Kingdom Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Official candidate” refers to the listed individual satisfying all applicable requirements and being officially confirmed by the Labour Party, or a consensus of credible reporting, as a candidate on the ballot for the next Labour Party leadership election. Seeking nominations, announcing an intention to run, or being reported as a potential candidate will not qualify unle",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Al Carns: Labour Party official confirmation or credible reporting consensus determines whether the named individual appears on the ballot for the next UK Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is an official candidate in the next United Kingdom Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Official candidate” refers to the listed individual satisfying all applicable requirements and being officially confirmed by the Labour Party, or a consensus of credible reporting, as a candidate on the ballot for the next Labour Party leadership election. Seeking nominations, announcing an intention to run, or being reported as a potential candidate will not qualify unless the individual is officially confirmed as a candidate on the ballot.\n\nIf a Labour Party leadership election occurs, or the final candidates are confirmed, and the listed individual is not included as a candidate, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such election is scheduled, or the listed individual is not officially confirmed as a candidate, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the listed individual becomes the next leader of the Labour Party without any competitive ballot election, that will suffice for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1431.5301049999998,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "al carns",
        "labour",
        "leadership",
        "uk politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7VG3PFF8G9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5PQ4Z7D292",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb9baf4d76ae15a66739def76768e1631ad57267e7f4cf3a046e985b75113efd1",
      "question": "Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is an official candidate in the next United Kingdom Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Official candidate” refers to the listed individual satisfying all applicable requirements and being officially confirmed by the Labour Party, or a consensus of credible reporting, as a candidate on the ballot for the next Labour Party leadership election. Seeking nominations, announcing an intention to run, or being reported as a potential candidate will not qualify unle",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Andy Burnham: Labour Party official confirmation or credible reporting consensus determines whether the named individual appears on the ballot for the next UK Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is an official candidate in the next United Kingdom Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Official candidate” refers to the listed individual satisfying all applicable requirements and being officially confirmed by the Labour Party, or a consensus of credible reporting, as a candidate on the ballot for the next Labour Party leadership election. Seeking nominations, announcing an intention to run, or being reported as a potential candidate will not qualify unless the individual is officially confirmed as a candidate on the ballot.\n\nIf a Labour Party leadership election occurs, or the final candidates are confirmed, and the listed individual is not included as a candidate, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such election is scheduled, or the listed individual is not officially confirmed as a candidate, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the listed individual becomes the next leader of the Labour Party without any competitive ballot election, that will suffice for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 444.83000000000004,
      "volume_total_usd": 4398.824902999999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "andy burnham",
        "labour",
        "leadership",
        "uk politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7BYK221Y07",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-17T13:31:58Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DN6SJ570Q2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-17T13:31:58Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C9KHW98BX4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-17T13:31:58Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QLKCLHW660",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-17T13:31:58Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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